What to do with my Wheat bear spread....

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by GiantHogweed, Jan 10, 2009.

  1. Hi folks,

    I am new to ag futures and to spreads and working to learn more. I entered a bear spread on wheat @ 24.0 WN9/WH9 without checking carrying costs. As you can see on the attached chart, wheat looks very tightly range-bound and after a bit of poking around I found a carrying costs table online.

    Looking at the spread charts for wheat, particularly the Sep vs others, I have a few questions that perhaps some experienced folks could help me with.

    Is it normal for the wheat market to be pushed up so close to carry? Why are some Sept spreads > carry?

    Reading through Courtney Smith's book, it seems that perhaps I should be in a bull spread here.

    Why aren't the spreads moving down away from full carry? Is this just a symptom of the huge downtrend since the summer?

    What is the likelihood that the carry costs will increase? making the bear spread more likely to profit?

    Any help with these questions would be appreciated!
  2. Oh crap. I thought this thread was about wheat beer...