What to do with my life?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shotstakovich, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. Visaria

    Visaria

    Why not 3%? It would take you 33 losing trades then. Or 4%, 25 trades?

    smalfil will reveal the statistically valid method as to why it should be 2% (or less). Can't wait!
     
    #31     Dec 14, 2018
  2. sle

    sle

    Hard, but certainly not impossible. The real question is why do you think you want to work for a hedge fund?
     
    #32     Dec 14, 2018
  3. I don't necessarily want to work for a hedge fund. If I can find a discretionary prop trading firm that accepts me, I would be happy to work there and just be paid on performance.
     
    #33     Dec 14, 2018
  4. sle

    sle

    In either case, could you explain why do you think you would be able to extract money from the markets? I.e. what is your edge?
     
    #34     Dec 14, 2018
  5. My edge has largely been fundamental, but want to develop skills in technicals, sentiment, etc.

    Where I have been most profitable has been in situations where market sentiment is at an extreme, and where I have a differing opinion and can express that opinion fairly cheaply.

    Probably my proudest trade this year was shorting NVDA at $260. Implied vol was at historic lows, management was promoting the GPU as the future leader in AI, sell-side analysts were upgrading the stock due to AI excitement, etc. I also thought it was interesting to see how many chip stocks were selling off and NVDA - which had a historical technical correlation with some of those stocks - suddenly diverged.

    I believed that there was serious competition in the AI space, and I also believed management was downplaying the excess second hand GPU inventory used for crypto-mining. I bought a bunch of long term put options, and went long the equity to hedge my initial delta position. I didn't re-hedge as the stock fell.

    Similar story with MU: Relatively cheap implied vol, bulls thought memory prices were going to up forever, yet capacity expansion in the industry was expanding rapidly, there were also signs of demand destruction. One of my favorite Stanley Druckenmiller quotes involves trading cyclical stocks (something along the lines of: buy when capacity expansion shrinks, sell when it expands).
     
    #35     Dec 14, 2018
  6. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    The babes?
     
    #36     Dec 14, 2018
    bln and sle like this.
  7. themickey

    themickey

    I believe these percentage rules like 2% trade size and max loss were rules espoused by the early big name pioneers of trading theory. Can't recall who they were now, but many years ago I once read many of the trading classic books and this was the guidelines thrown about by many gurus.
     
    #37     Dec 14, 2018
  8. How many years of track record do you have ? You only mentioned this year. You will require a few years especially for a swing trading approach.

    5% peak to valley max draw down on high 2 digits return for a few years on a scalable strategy I'm sure you can find something that will back you. I certainly would if you had 5 years of similar record and proper structures in place.
     
    #38     Dec 14, 2018
  9. I've been trading for 5 years. The first three years I doubled my money following a value investor approach, and then i suffered a large loss on a very concentrated bet.

    Over the past two years I started to become profitable, implementing options to express my mostly fundamental views on direction and volatility on individual companies. Occasionally I'll put on a technical trade if I believe the r/r is attractive, although these are much smaller positions.

    I know IB has a nice graph showing a trader's NAV over time, but I dont think td Ameritrade has that. I may have to switch over to IB.
     
    #39     Dec 15, 2018
  10. qlai

    qlai

    I would suggest to write them a thank you letter and ask them to give you the truth of why. Tell them their honesty will be considered as a big favor. But I suspect that you already know ... You don't have an answer to @sle question. You probably don't have enough knowledge/skill to impress professionals. And if you did they might have just brain raped you and let you go. This is not a put down. It's a common challenge. I think your friend is right, concentrate on who you know, not what you know to get the foot in. Good luck.
     
    #40     Dec 15, 2018
    yc47ib and MarkBrown like this.