A 95% win rate is a red flag telling you there is a problem with your backtesting parameters, data, or backtesting period. Or, all three. Time to move back to the start of your Candyland board and try it again.
If your method looks good after backtesting against historical data I'd run it against a "live" simulator (IB, for instance) for at least several weeks keeping very close track of the details of every trade. That gives you more of a feel for how it trades in real time. Why go through the cost and brain damage of automating a system that hasn't been carefully examined in as close to a real time trading environment as you can get? (Especially if you've never gone through that before.)
Traders with gerat methods and no money to trade them are a dime a dozen. I had gerat methods the first couple of times I blew my account out too.
Sounds like curve fitting to me. Run the same parameters on a different set of historical data and see what you come up with.
I can see that there are about ten trades and they go: S L S L S L S L S L. I dont know about you but with mechanical systems i get suspicious when i see trades with alternate positions like that. Mechanical systems which stop and reverse usually get whipsawed to death at some point during their realatively short lifespans. discretionary trading is much more suited to stop reverse.
Hello Rough I would like your help to automate if I can. I dont need trading capital.I have plenty. But I have fear.(may be due to other reasons in personal life) I take profits too soon. Iam using chart based trading based on say a list of 20-40 stocks. Not scanning per se. May watch trade alerts or IB TWS scanner. Iam using Medved Quote tracker with IB. I can send you later my usual chart set ups & how they are worth atleast a quick scalp. but the problem is fear/hesitation to pull the trigger. So to counter that I need to automate. IS Trade station is the only solution? Iam averse to change brokers. Suggest how I go about automating preferably with IB! Thanks
spinn, Check out one of these independent programmers. http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/poll/ibconsultants.php?progid=10&ib_entity=llc I hope this helps. Does your system also show a profit for trading stocks? Tom