What to do? Whom to trust? Whom to follow? How to survive? How to do it better?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by baro-san, Nov 30, 2011.


  1. LOL

    This is why people invented math. So you don't need to hear anyone else's story about reality. Use math and you will see the truth. If you don't know math or you cannot use a math tool, you have no chance. Everything is game theory, dynamic programming or if you are lucky linear programming and if you are extremely lucky maybe linear regression.

    Trading is simple in theory. If you cannot come up with a high probability trade which has high expectation then you need to stay away or risk ruin.

    The problem is how to find high probability trades. Charts will deceive you and all indicators with them. The market rulers will show you nice charts and good indicator values all the time to make you bite the bait. You need to have a measure of the probability that they are lying.

    You have to study many markets all the time and look for high probability trades. If you start looking at charts you will burn out and lose your money at the end. You need some automated means of mining the markets for high probability trades (See Renaissance Technologies ). You either develop it yourself or pay for it. Nothing will come easy. The market has no patience for those who do not understand the cardinal rule of investment: zero down - zero profit. You can't make money just by using your slow mind which is subject to all sorts of emotions and illusions and some free charting packages. You need serious tools and if you cannot develop them or buy them, stay away, or your end is maybe near unless you get very lucky (3 - 6 sigma). Here are some tools to start with:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2968698#post2968698
     
    #11     Dec 4, 2011