Hi Guys: 1969 was the year. I was buying...not selling. I kept buying around 3.20, and it would run down, stop me out. I lost all my money in a trading range. LOL. At the time there was a World Sugar Agreement, under which the producing countries had agreed not to let sugar rise over 3.5. But when I done my analysis, I figured it was worth 6.50. So in my naivete I figured I would get long, and as it rose I would pyramid my holding. If I recollect, I figured on the $500 margin it took for one sugar contract, I was going to make something like $60K on the move. I can't begin to tell you how much money $65K was in 1969!! LOL. I think it did go up into the 6-7 range by spring of 1969. And at some point on down the road, I believe it went to 60-70 as you say. I was gone by then as they say...lol. Became a hippy for a while....! OldTrader
I couldn't read the twelve pages of this thread but by what I read I was confirmed that one thing characterizing successful traders is: A trading system to pick trades, and a stoploss to limit losses. A trading system tells you, on statistical grounds, what opportunities you should go for, and a stoploss limits your losses when you happen to be wrong. A trading system is simply a moving average and its crossovers with the index. On the Dow Jones it seems that the 5-day ma crossovers are profitable. You can trade index futures and go long when there is a bullish crossover and short when there is a bearish crossover. And you can apply the same principle to daytrading, simply by changing the periods of the moving average. So, basically, what you need is 2 things: 1. a moving average 2. a stoploss (and trailing stop) Then you shouldn't lose anymore. You should at least break even. Then, if you can filter some false signals, during trading ranges, you should make money. But remember, you can only filter signals, which means ignoring or postponing the execution of a signal: but you cannot anticipate a signal. Risk management Such a moving average crossover system seems to be Stop and Reverse, but it isn't, because you should indeed filter signals. You should not go for all trades that seem to be 51% probable, because then anything would make you hesitate and exit the trade. You should enter when there is a signal making you feel 70% confident, and exit when you feel less than 50%, that is when the opposite crossover happens. But between closing a trade and entering a new one there should be a flat phase. When the market is without a direction, the trading range, you can either do one high probability intraday trade suggested by a different ma crossover, or just stay flat. You should be prepared to be flat as much as half of the time. It's not like a regular job, where the more you work the more you make money. Not being in the market all the time should mean missing opportunities...to lose. As soon as you will go from instinctive trading to system trading, you will gain confidence and will get rid of the emotions that impair your choices. You will never be against the trend, if you follow short term moving averages based on daily closes of the index. You will let your profits run, and cut your losses short.
hey, who is GG? why does he have so much time to speed type these long meandering threads? how has he gone from 0 to 1,435 posts in 6 months? is there any wonder his trading suffers so much? does he exist under a previous handle, or another handle, and post against himself, just to boost his counts?
i'm here because trading interests me and i want to learn. i've been here 12 months, not 6. i probably spend as much time on here as you do. except i just respond to more messages. because i spend 30 min a day here does not mean i don't have time to do anything else. i have 1492 (3.93 posts per day). you have 526 (1.03 posts per day). on average, i post not even 3 more messages than you a day. why would something that insignificant concern you so much? i could care less how many total posts i have. baron can reset my posts to 0 and i won't say a word. i should not even have responded to this nonsense..
OK you guys, cool it. Both of you post good stuff. Forget the stats, shut up and post something funny and useful...I'm new here and want to learn more about how you see trading and the trader's life.