What to do when you are ready to lose your mind from trading?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by 7out, Mar 3, 2022.

  1. 7out

    7out

    lol, I just enjoyed beating the markets from an early age. I enjoy thinking up ideas/strategies to beat the market. I might start giving some to others (ones that I can't see would remove liquidity for me or cause my stops to fight for a price).
     
    #21     Mar 3, 2022
  2. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    You need to go back and do more backtesting and re-examine your trades. How and why do you think your system would pick 80% winners? The reality obviously proved otherwise and showed you something different that you didn't see in your trading system so you need to find out what's the cause of this discrepancy Is it because you didn't backtest enough? How long did you go back to backtest your system? Did you backtest this system in all market scenarios, both positive and negative which is what we are in right now with inflations and this war?

    Next, if you believe that your backtesting is adequate then there must be something that you are doing that is not the same as in your backtesting because if you are doing exactly the same as your backtesting, you should get exactly the same trading result as in your backtesting. Why aren't they reflecting your backtesting? You need to re-examine your trades. Is it an issue of your execution? Backtesting has perfect execution of all trades while in real-life trading, you have to deal with lags, market manipulations and etc. Is that the issue? Are you following your system exactly to the T? Maybe that is the reason?

    I would be re-examining these issues trying to answer these questions if I were you during this downtime.
     
    #22     Mar 3, 2022
    Statistical Trader likes this.
  3. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    You seem to pick up on a lot of things. Different topic, but I'd be curious of your take on this. A retired military officer and now Boeing engineer "forgot" he had 9/11 footage and decided to release it as Russia attacked Ukraine. It's surprisingly good quality--looks more like a video from 2017. Remember they didn't have video cameras on cell phones at the time, so you had to carry around mini-camcorders then digitize the film. Slow downaround 5:57 just before the crash and you may notice some odd stuff. There's also weird, seemingly symbolic footage at the end, and the video abruptly ends at exactly 8 minutes and 46 seconds. The first tower was hit at 8:46AM and that number gets thrown around for several conspiracy theories. All a coincidence? Is he signaling something?
    9-11 Kevin's Video with raw audio (includes swearing) - YouTube
     
    #23     Mar 3, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  4. What is your sample size? If your sample size is small 80% is meaningless...
     
    #24     Mar 4, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. OP, Lots of good answers, just adding something in.

    - Systems don't remain profitable forever, if market conditions change, your system must adapt to it.
    - Human beings can make unprofitable trades more often than algorithms, a backtest that shows an 80% of winning trades implies perfect executions. A person cannot perform perfectly, so if you are picking trades out of signals bear in mind that you(as a person) can add a flaw to the system.
    - That 80% will show up if you trade every single one of the signals that your system is giving you, if you miss signals and don't enter some trades your system has changed and you can't expect that 80% any more.
    - I would rerun the backtest with the data you've got now, I am sure you will realise some points where you can improve.
     
    #25     Mar 4, 2022
  6. Bugsy

    Bugsy

    That was excellent.
     
    #26     Mar 4, 2022
    Overnight, zghorner and Laissez Faire like this.
  7. %%
    I LOOK for patterns anywhere.. .. .. .. I may pay attention more to numbers like 8:45, or 8,45, or 8,50. That US military officer most likely know things about the evil empireRussia, he cant tell.
    Those kind of airline attackers in that video whipped the evil empire Russia in Afghanistan\or wore them down so much they finally left.:caution::caution:
     
    #27     Mar 4, 2022
  8. Leob

    Leob

    First thing to is to stop ant wait for new fresh prespective. This is not time for action it's time to think. Impossible to get good desicions under this condition. Anyone will get lost in his unexpected zone.
    Big like for the question OP
     
    #28     Mar 4, 2022
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    What timeframe charts are you working this setup with?
     
    #29     Mar 4, 2022
  10. comagnum

    comagnum

    This podcast on taking big losses & moving forward after it is spot on.

    Start at 25 minutes:
     
    #30     Mar 4, 2022