What to buy now

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Wilt, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. Wilt

    Wilt

    NewTrader-I would not sell everything next week. It is my opinion that we have much less downside than upside risk in the short run. Don't sell your AAPL. Let's examine the risk. You have it from 156-it's down 60 points. Let's say they have poor earnings, it loses 25%. You've born the brunt of the downside. If AAPL is going to start a multiquarter downswing, news will show that's going to happen, it's not going to lose most of what's left next week. The easy money downside has been made, don't let the jackers take your stock when the risk/reward is highly favorable to them. If AAPL is over, it will show you that over time. When stocks die, it's a multi quarter process because their business has turned.

    Here's the best advice I can give you. (I should charge for this sh$t because it's the truest, simplest advice you'll ever hear on the market) Don't own stocks whose businesses are bad; own stocks whose businesses are good. It really is that simple. You determine this through earnings and guidance. I have no idea how far down or how far up stocks will move when their businesses are in this position. I would not own C because their business is crap like the rest of financials. When their business turns, buy it. You will have plenty of upside without having to play the guessing game. The only downside is you can't say you're "smarter" than everyone else because you owned it at $5 for a year and I bought it at $6 and now it's $10 three months after their business turned.

    I would examine the businesses of your stocks. Given the losses you've sustained, I can't advise on you on what to do with them. Just that if their businesses still suck, they will continue to fall after every earnings report. Out of the companies you own, AAPL is the only one I kind of like. If their earnings are bad, more downside will ensue. But, at least you will have a good reason to sell. If they are not, I think it will see $120 for a while.
     
    #21     Oct 5, 2008
  2. MOO looks good for long term.
     
    #22     Oct 5, 2008
  3. You shouldn't be buying anything in this market without STRONG technicals to support it. If you are buying with only 1 data point (price), you will get CREAMED!!


     
    #23     Oct 5, 2008
  4. dsq

    dsq

    i wouldnt sell c,yhoo...
    I wouldnt buy anything for long term here.
    I would sell aapl on any rally before their earnings coming out soon.
    This is a bear market.
    In bear bear market you sell rally's NOT buy dips.

    BULL MARKET:BUY DIPS
    BEAR MARKET : SELL RALLY'S
     
    #24     Oct 5, 2008
  5. how about buying SP500 puts?
     
    #25     Oct 5, 2008
  6. it's post like these from people with usernames several years old that make me really worry.

    I'm the one left holding the POT and MOS bag, although I definitely didn't buy them as "bargains."

    you guys remember the video with the guy blowing up his account? that's sort of how I feel as I watch BG, MOS, POT etc fall 100+ dollars a share from where I bought them.
     
    #26     Oct 5, 2008
  7. Thanks for the advise
    But if you don't buy dips, how you sell rally?
     
    #27     Oct 5, 2008
  8. Wilt

    Wilt

    Damnit that was good! I thought the prices I posted would get overshot a little and we could benefit from that. I was able to pick up ENER in the high 47's and FSLR at 139. I tried to get FSLR sub 136, but I was too slow while at work. Still, my prices worked beautifully.

    Hope some of you heeded my advice.

    Wilt
     
    #28     Oct 6, 2008
  9. yayt

    yayt

    I think he means selling short
     
    #29     Oct 6, 2008