What to buy in anticipation of bad times for the best return

Discussion in 'Economics' started by zdreg, Mar 2, 2025.

Is it good advice from a billionaire

  1. Yes

    1 vote(s)
    12.5%
  2. NO

    3 vote(s)
    37.5%
  3. I don't take advice

    4 vote(s)
    50.0%
  1. They don't want any Yankees on their turf. Americans are not welcome. You would better luck in the EU.

    Akuma
     
    #21     Mar 19, 2025
  2. piezoe

    piezoe

    ?
    Not sure business development is going to be the best place to be in recession.
     
    #22     Mar 22, 2025
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    Yes indeed, it is becoming an embarrassment to be an American in traveling in Canada or Western Europe. Similar thing happened during the Vietnam War. Europeans are not good at separating a Canadian accent from a Midwestern U.S. accent. Some Americans traveling abroad would say they were Canadian if someone asked them where they were from, too embarrassed to admit they were from the Country that was dropping napalm on Vietnam...
     
    #23     Mar 22, 2025
  4. kpwn

    kpwn

    Puts
     
    #24     Mar 22, 2025
  5. zdreg

    zdreg

    vertical and/or calendar puts
     
    #25     Mar 22, 2025
  6. Honest question -- how do you assess the downside risk? I look at BDC's all the time for the high yield, but always hear in the back of mind: "chasing yield ends up losing capital", especially worried in a bad economy. Or, are they buying bankrupt companies (or assets from them) and then selling to the super-rich (who are so happy they get massive discounts in a bad economy)? BTW: I would love to just buy BDCs and get around 10% -- I could retire now from that monthly income. But just so scared one day or month, my money would drop 20% - 50% or more, just like any stocks.
     
    #26     Mar 24, 2025
  7. acrary

    acrary

    Just have to be selective. Avoid the companies that are in the medical and REIT sectors. One that I own is Trinity Capital (Trin).
    It goes ex-div this week and I'll be looking to add to it in early April. Look at the last 6 months. Not much to fear and a low P/E.
     
    #27     Mar 24, 2025
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Why avoid the medical/healthcare and REIT sectors? Many times these are deemed to be defensive -- in that the price drops less than the market indexes in down markets.

    Healthcare is outperforming the market since the beginning of the year; after greatly under-performing in the bull market of 2024.

    To be fair, REITs are primarily focused on income distribution (90% required distributions as per Section 857a) rather than price appreciation. The better REITs remain somewhat stable in price over time. Most investors focused on income (retirees, etc.) rather than growth are likely to have BDCs, REITs, and preferred share securities as part of their portfolio.

    UPDATE -Is your feedback only focused on BDCs -- to avoid BDCs involved with REITs or medical?
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2025
    #28     Mar 24, 2025
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #29     Mar 24, 2025
  10. vztrdr

    vztrdr

    Yep. Except one thing. Healthcare stocks are a bubble. The bottom is gonna fall out of this sector. I don't know when, but it will.

    Paying $21 for a $0.21 4X4 inch patch of gauze can't last. And yeah I know how you are GWB... you'll tell me 1000 X's over why I'm wrong, and probably google up 5 links supporting your post.... but I'm not wrong. And in your defense, and probably the impetus for your post... "it has always been that way." But things are changing. And I don't mean DOGE type things, or anything political. The mindset of "safe"... lol... it's on the tombstones of many hot-shot PM's.

    I have no idea when, so what I write is useless from a trading standpoint, but you mark my word, this sector is gonna come down hard, probably sooner than later. In the end, water always seeks its level.
    ~vz
     
    #30     Mar 25, 2025