What To Buy?- IDTI and...

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Aug 10, 2007.

  1. Hello and good mourning.

    Boy another free fall and it's time to piss away some more money. What's out there? Not much.

    Let's start with IDTI and then hopefully we'll move on from there because believe it or not I have come up with an idea or two even in these conditions.

    So far I have accumulated EMC, FLEX & ANF in the past few weeks I think these are very good choices with good upside potential. Now I look at Integrated devices.

    > Back in June IDTI put in a classic double bottom which thanks to this past weeks action has become a triple bottom. A stock that was finally above trend lines @ $16 has slid back to $14.25 level where the support sits. I believe
    this stock should be $19 by end of year.

    > IDT is well-positioned in a variety of $50-to-$500 million 'niche' semiconductor markets that are expanding along with Internet, and networked communications. IDT uses its expertise in silicon timing, interface, and memory design to capture share, as transitions in industry standards create opportunities in a variety of communications, consumer and computer markets.
    >concerns with near-term prospects has unduly punished IDTI's price recently.
    >There should be renewed growth in the second half of 2007, and secular shifts and penetration gains in base station switches, PC audio and switches, videogame and communications clocks, and network coprocessors will expand IDT's revenue base in the coming 18-24 months.

    I'm seeing this as a play off CSCO;

    Integrated Device Technology (IDTI), which gets 80% of its sales of network search engine (NSE) chips from Cisco, and gets 10% of revenue from Cisco, is a compelling buy at 15x earnings per share of 96 cents for the March, 2008-ending fiscal year. IDT had been under pressure of late thanks to build-ups in component inventory, but the clouds could be lifting thanks to Cisco’s pickup in basic networking technologies: Communications was IDTI’s weak spot last quarter, and we can expect one more quarter of weak sales in this segment as the inventory correction in NSEs is completed. CSCO’s report indicates that those inventories are likely to clear as anticipated and that we are likely to see robust growth in [the fourth quarter of the calendar year] as orders for high-end routers turn into NSE orders for IDTI.

    My feeling is word of the above mentioned inventory clear out will be communicated to the market in advance of next qtrs earnings and since the market is forward thinking we should take a look at this stock today as a possible buy on weakness. 4th QTR should be a barnburner for IDTI~ stoney
  2. My second stock today is Boon Pickin's recent IPO
    Clean Energy. CLNE. I've sort of been dancing around this one for a while because I feel oil is weak now and alt energy plays like solar should be diving... but more and more I come to realize this is REAL is happening now: municipalities are shifting over to clean natural gas for their buses and such and the GLOBAL opportunity for Boon is HUGE.

    Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), according to the company's website, is "the largest provider of Natural Gas for transportation in North America with a broad customer base in the refuse, transit, shuttle, taxi, police, intrastate and interstate trucking, airport, and municipal fleet markets."

    CLNE serves approximately 200 fleet customers who operate approximately 13,000 Natural Gas vehicles in various markets, including public transit, refuse hauling, airports, taxis, and regional trucking. Moreover, the company owns, operates, and supplies 168 Natural Gas fueling stations as well as sell and lease Natural Gas fueling stations to third parties.

    Moreover, the United States Government is currently subsidizing a significant percentage of the upfront costs incurred by customers as they switch from Diesel or Gasoline powered vehicles to Natural Gas powered vehicles. The reasons for this are simple and outlined in a seeking alpha piece:

    >First, 100% of the Natural Gas used in the U.S. is currently produced by North American countries meaning, unlike oil, U.S. dollars are not flowing into the hands of unfriendly nations or violent extremists intent on harming U.S. interests.

    >Second, Natural Gas is far cleaner than any other alternative fuel with the exception of Hydrogen, which is, at best, decades away from mass use. Moreover, producing Natural gas does not take up any valuable cropland away from food production. Natural Gas vehicles produce 95% less pollution than Gasoline or Diesel ones.

    >Third, natural gas is far cheaper than Petroleum meaning substantial savings in the long run for Natural Gas operators. Fourth, Natural Gas is currently viewed by industry experts, including Spencer Abraham, the current head of the Department of Energy, as the most efficient feedstock to produce Hydrogen. Furthermore, much of the infrastructure built to support fleets of Natural Gas powered vehicles can be easily converted to distribute Hydrogen instead of natural gas when comes to do so. It is even possible to produce Hydrogen-Natural Gas blended fuels, which make good economic and environmental sense.

    There has been a recent write up on Strret.com on the name by Jon D. Markman which highlights the potential for the Natural Gas fuel market in the U.S. alone at $21 billion, of which, a large portion will likely go to CLNE. Moreover, according to Mr. Markman the company is likely to earn between $0.60 and $0.84 per share in 2009. This is a 1900% to 2700% increase over this years projected earnings of $0.03 per share.

    The company, which has almost no debt is priced at roughly 71 times next years projected earnings which seems like a lot but remember 2009 projected earnings and we get to 27.5 times , assuming the company only makes $0.60 per share in earnings. They should make A LOT MORE!!

    More from Mr. Markman: Founded 10 years ago by energy industry icon T. Boone Pickens, the company designs, builds, finances and operates fueling stations that supply CNG and LNG to fleet operators. It also helps customers buy and finance natural-gas vehicles and ensure that they get their full measure of government incentives for doing so. Through 168 stations, it already serves 200 fleets that operate 13,000 CNG vehicles.

    The company makes money mostly by selling CNG and LNG and running fueling stations. It's a volume business, and Clean Energy aims to become the brand and sales leader. The plan is attractive in its simplicity. By leveraging the country's vast network of gas pipelines, Clean Energy just buys supercooled liquefied natural gas from local utilities and then compresses and transports it to its fueling stations via tanker trucks.

    Last year, Clean Energy lost $4.7 million on $91.5 million in revenue, but it appears to be right on the verge of a material ramp in profitability. It did earn money in the first quarter of this year, and if it wins a couple of contracts that are currently on the table with Waste Management and the Port of Los Angeles, it could earn as much as 3 cents a share in the current fiscal year, 23 cents in 2008 and 60 cents to 84 cents in 2009.we're talking about a little-known but well-established company led by a much-respected energy pro that dominates a niche where growth is likely to exceed 100%. And yet it trades at a price-earnings multiple, on 2009 estimates, of just 20....

    >> Now where getting into the numbers that agree with mine a PE of 20 to 22 and growth of 100% That's stonedinvesting!

    The big catalyst now for Clean Energy will be the Port of Los Angeles' push to replace 5,300 of its oldest diesel trucks with ones powered by natural gas over the next two years.

    Clean Energy has already won three out of the four contracts that the port has awarded for LNG terminals, and it is considered likely to win the fourth as well. The deal would boost annual gas volume by 32% in 2008 alone.

    Other West Coast ports are said to be considering similar initiatives to help them comply with state regulations aimed at reducing carbon-dioxide pollution by 10% over the next 10 years.

    A recent deal with Puru doesn't hurt either! Interesting stuff Boon my one remaining DD is on the financing side as research shows CLNE helps it's customers finance (there's that dirty word) BUT since we are talking municipalities and large ports here in the beginning I don't think we have to worry about mom and pop CNG & LNG stations just yet....
    ~ stoney
  3. My third stock for today is CMED. I have to thank Nikoi
    (hope I spelled that right) for pointing out this stocks incredible relative strength during the last downturn and the same holds true today this is about the strongest stock on my watch list look at the 5 day and then look at today... constant support. $29 on monday and $32 today. Roaring into earnings they better hit their mark. ~ stoney
  4. Update One. Integ. Device.

    Well Super day for IDTI purchase @$14.80 slow constant rise to $15.40 Hate to do it but making it a daytrade and coming in at the close to buy again. Just scared S less about this market sorry- I know I'll catch flack for this. Just take a peek at the daily though what a nice story today and all it took was 3 hrs of research from 6 in the morning on. I hope some of you are in with me and just hold. ~ stoney