Even if anyone had an insider tip if it was higher or lower, there is simply no way of knowing with certainty how the market will react. Even if the number is much better/worse than expected the market could still go in the opposite direction. There was an anecdote in "House of Money" where a guy retold a story that supposedly happened in the bond pit (IIRC). NFP comes out, wild trading ensues. An acquaintance of the narrator is cleaning up, making tons of money in 15 minutes. Slowly, the commotion and volatility dies down a bit and the trader who just made a bundle and then some steps out for a bit and asks "So.. anybody know what the number was?"
The NFP algo is more complex than the NFL's QB rating. We've had so many workers already counted on NFP and gone to extended benefits that we could have a print under 200k. Eco reports usually confirm trend, so, it's likely that we have a number worse than expected. A >10% unemployment print would really send us tanking. That would be fun. Edit: (Nice ad from DOT ET) Is buzzed trading drunk trading?! A small dose of fukitol before NFP sounds good.
I anticipate really good number for NFP, unemployment rate will be lower this time. stock may tank again.
WASHINGTON â President Obama's economic advisers estimated Thursday that the economic stimulus package has saved or created about 1 million jobs. Don't worry about lost jobs.... He has saved millions of jobs. All praise Dear Leader Obama.