Price action is like weather. The further away in time you are trying to predict something, the harder it is; the next few ticks, however, can be predicted with very high accuracy.
Good post cash, it amazes me when Buffet says "the only difference I see where being rich matters is that I(Buffet) can travel in more luxury that others". I guess eating at RuthsChris vs Burger King does not matter.
In the William O Neil's book he says about DayTrading "most investors will lose money day trading" and "the minor daily fluctuations are harder to predict and there is not enough profit potential to offset the commissions you generate therefore losses must occur." There are some traders that do fall in that 5 to 10%, one would be that "Sykes" guy. I think he turned like 15k to one million so it does show it can be done.
I'm serious, washington needs to make brokers caugh up the numbers on how many people close out their accounts from their 1st year so people can see past the bullshit. NO ONE knows the real number because there's been no official report, and if so let me see it.
5%! Thats great! My chances in the NFL were far worse. For a career with unlimited upside, independance etc... 5% sounds like the American dream! "The world needs ditch diggers too"
Everyone dreams of easy money with no work required. Trading at first looks easy. I think most people just don't want to take the required amount of time to work for it. Nor do they have the discipline to save up money for trading. The amount of time will vary for each person. I suppose not knowing when success will be achieved, and not knowing if it is even possible discourages most. I spent and wasted 16 years at the last place I worked. Many years ago management gathered us around and told us that the employee turnover rate was 100% every three months or so. They paid good money for this area and there's not much opportunity here. People won't even work a job to feed their family, how will they succeed at being self-employed such as trading? After 16 years we had the lifers still there, which made up maybe less than 5% of the workers. Less than 5% of the population excel at any one thing looks like. It's just easier for most to finally find a job that is suited to their level of ambition, surrounded by people that will pick up after them.
Some of those who "did so" had a lot of luck on their side. It doesn't necessarily mean they weren't mostly gambling rather than skill
Statistics is a well-supported field. Your statement that 75% of most are werong is the thing that is unsupported. Unless of course, you intend to prove this?