Well, I have been more than a lucky guy yesterday, sold the NYMYEX contract at 80.47 before the numbers and covered them at 79.05, 78.77 and 75.53. Afterwards I didn´t take a look at it, because I have been busy with the stock indices and Warren B.´s bid for Bear Stearns. All of a sudden a friend called my attention to crude on NYMEX => I shorted again at 80.47 ! My guess is just some smart guys got up on the wrong side of the bed and are trying to obscure the pricing. MERRILL and several other commentators are anyway talking of exaggerated pricing action. Just my humble comment...
what if we just see dollar colapse? Euro making new highs everyday Oil gets cheaper for europeans and the whole world they don't care how much it's in dollars And US prints dollars so oil price is not a problem in the USA either
flip side: what if the USD is already at its weakest nearterm?? What if possibly the USD goes to 1.35 or even 1.27 as the housing market stabilizes, the FOMC stops cutting rates (as they attained credit market stabilization they sought), and the US economy actually improves from this stimulus to export companies, etc. just love being devil's advocate. everyone is in on this trade (short the USD) ... just like everyone is long BIDU... makes you wonder. (err.. just like everyone and their mother used to be long the USD against JPY, when it was on its way to 140).
While there was no fresh oil market news driving the gains, analysts said the backwardated structure of the oil curve -- where prices nearby are higher than in the future -- was drawing in financial investors into oil. "For the financial players, it's a no-brainer. You buy the front and then roll and collect every month. You can print money," said Michael Wittner, analyst at Societe Generale. I like the expression "no-brainer"
what interesting yesterday they had no explanation. They thought about depression in the Gulf or something else. And evntually today it's no-brainer And another 2 $ today up. On bearish news. Really no brainer. Probably $100 by November
Crude oil going up without events and fundamentals are not favoring, the system which forecasted to make landfall on Mexico doesnt really disrupt supplies if it goes according to forecasted track. Once speculations is off (ie: system fades and more build on supplies, things are going to get back to fundamentals.) which we should be aware, market is already heavily with long-position over these few days, a turning tide will cause market to get volatile...so keep alert guys .