About like his CL short a while back⦠from which he then simply faded away Perhaps history will once again repeat itself Btw, and plagiarizing from Boneâ¦. ETâs very own â Spanish - Fade Monkey RN
The stock market could go to zero tomorrow, I have no clue about that. It is just so exhausting and counterproductive to constantly fight the market. 99 % of the entries I take mark against me at some point in time. And I take a loss every day. Every freaking day. Anything that I do in the marketplace I am going to take heat on. But I simply have to look at price action and make sure in my own mind that I am not fighting the deep pockets. In my client work, the technical models I have developed are strictly price action and are designed to let the deep pockets turn the market and then I hopefully jump in with them for the ride. I try not to complicate things any more than that. I don't want to sell the high. I want 850 Goldman Sachs Institutional Clients to sell the high and I simply want to collect a modest fraction of the trading range and then move on with my life. But I will not argue with an obvious trend and ridiculously strong order flow. For me it's a matter of survivability and staying power. I have a family to support through my trading, the client work is basically a 401K supplement. I can piss away $200K in a heartbeat telling the deep pockets that they are wrong and I am right. I simply cannot let narcissistic reinforcement destroy my trading account. Oh, and on top of it all, I trade spreads because spreads are for pussies and risk averse pantywastes who don't want all of that risk.
You must trade a lot to have math that gives you 9%. The fewest trades that could be is 11. One winner, 10 losers = 9% win rate. Actually, I guess that's not really that many. Nevermind. I was thinking it down from 9/100 and I was like whoa, 100 in a day, that's a lot!
FWIW... here's my perspective.. Institutional shift from the bond (fixed income) market to the equity market... Ironically, the Feds actions to keep interest rates low will ultimately drive interest rates up... the increase in yield drives down the bond prices; thereby, prompting the shift to the equity market... Walt
Yes, that day I had 11 trades and one winner, lol. But it outdid the slew of b/e and small losers. I trade between 10 and 25 times a day, BTW. I watched a micro-scalper trade and I think he trades 25 times an hour :eek:
Buy and hold makes sense for those who have to be right. It can still fail, but if you're very selective and hedge properly, you can end up "right" 99% of the time. For those of us who are making a living and want extra to retire on, or who want to amass wealth in 5-10 years, day trading and short term swing trading produce the large returns.
How do you know when to get out? Seriously. What makes you say "I thought price was going to go up, but based on this current drawdown and price action, I now believe it is more likely to continue going down"? I assume you wouldn't exit a long position if you believed it was going to go back up. In essense, you are predicting that it is more likely to keep going down. Or, is it more like "I thought price was going to go long, but I am now unsure so I am exiting"? In other words, it's not that you're always predicting up or down, but instead are sometimes predicting up, sometimes predicting down, and sometimes unsure (so you exit the market). So when you enter a trade it's "based on my analysis, price is more likely to go up than to go down at this point." Then price goes against you and it's "based on this analysis, my original prediction was wrong, and now I don't have enough data to make a future prediction, so I am exiting just in case it keeps going down." Is that correct? In reply to your other post, I totally don't understand how scalpers can trade. Their small profit targets are just noise, and with their big position sizes, there can be huge drawdown in a short period of time. I'd love to watch a scalper work, because I can't imagine it being possible. What makes one think "I think price is going to go up two ticks before it goes anywhere else?" I mean, I get, on a conceptual level, long term price predicting. But on a frame of seconds? It just seems like noise. Now I sit back and wait for the vague posts like "well that just shows you don't get it." lol.
Are you upset about that?! Better for economy if the markets are vibrant, and stronger. Markets always look FORWARD. Further markets always overshoot upside/downside. I think going forward there are clear signs that economy is or has bottomed and will slowly improve! That was my bias for quite a while. I see SPX at 1550-70 minimum. Maybe not on this leg. I don't get why some people are upset as if there is some moral or ethical issue when a stock or market index moves too high or low - in THEIR opinion! [this includes me when i am not on that side of the trade] Lol