Trend Following is the yuppie term for buy and hope. Just look at the drawdowns of the trend kings and see for yourself. surf Whereas, Trend Anticipation is the key term in the Price Drivers system
And I have gone out of my way, in repeated posts in multiple threads, to say in no uncertain terms that I do not predict peaks. Furthermore, I say in multiple posts and in multiple threads that predicting peaks is not necessary - and in fact, my models and the strategy I teach to clients is to let the deep pockets turn the market and to not try to time highs and lows. We intentionally sacrifice trading range in exchange for signal confirmation. And, mind you, we trade spreads which model for more trending price action than outright flat price markets. Thanks for highjacking an obvious Dr. Suess handle and swimming in the cesspool of pollution that the fable rails against. You are clearly a dolt without original thought. P.S. : In five years of existence you have 190 posts under your belt - and every post is a critique without any contribution to trading science or a constructive thought. I looked through your posts - and you are a bitch, Sir. A sniper who can't shoot straight and by the looks of your previous post contents you sport saggy granny tits.
I tried to keep it simple. I will try one more time. Trend followers say "the trend is your friend," right? Trend followers are strongly anti-bottom picking, right? Therefore, you should only enter once a trend has been established, otherwise there is no trend and you are probably just picking bottoms. To simplify, trend following rules are: 1) identify the trend 2) enter in the direction of the trend Right now, SPY is in an upward trend. Therefore we have completed step 1. Step 2 is to enter in the direction of the trend. Why? Because "the trend is your friend." Therefore, trend followers would buy SPY right now. I agree SPY is in an upward trend. I disagree that makes it more likely to continue going up. I'm not trying to demonize trend following. I just haven't ever seen a trend following system that works.
What are you like?? Ever heard of trade management? Trailing stops? Every sucker wants to assume the top or bottom. They should put more effort into trade management, and using the correct trade parameters/metrics.
Well, if true trend followers were buying SPY right now as you suggest, then they would be adding to an already very, very profitable position.