Indicators help a trader read price. Wall street prefers you to think it's a modern day field of alchemy.
a moving average turning over 'indicates' your cycle may be half over. there are simple functional uses, far from red light green light
...by then the price action had ALREADY "indicated" your "cycle" (whatever that is) may be over. You indicator guys are too sensitive.
I agree! Although I have noticed the people who get offended when asked for proof are the people who are bullshitting you. I mean it would be pretty easy to provide proof: 1) Start a journal thread. 2) Make real time calls. If you are profitable, you will have the entire forum following you. Seems pretty simple to me.
That doesn't even mean anything. Wait, by "cycle" do you mean "trend"? Most moving averages change slope when price closes to the other side of them. Just because that happens does not mean price is likely to keep going in the other direction, though. If it did, then this would be the holy grail system.
Why don't you post trades on their behalf to demonstrate how ridiculous they can be. Now SPY at 150.47, VXX=22.93. Trend followers should tell us long side I think they would wrong.
The one thing trend followers love to do is tell you that you are analyzing the trend wrong. Of course, they will only tell you that after the trend reverses and your call was wrong. By all accounts right now SPY is in an uptrend. According to trend follower logic, we should all go long SPY right now because since it's in an uptrend, it is therefore more likely to continue to go up, because that's how trends work.
This would not be a horrible place to attempt a short side trade, in my view. Let's look at the facts: -S&P still at some kind of resistance (upward sloping resistance moves the range slightly above 1505). -Mid caps definitely sitting right at resistance (by the way, someone opened a HUGE volatility bet at this level on the mid caps). -Nasdaq going sideways and possibly at right shoulder of a bearish head and shoulders. My signal to invalidate the short idea is still MDY strongly closing above 200, with the most clear scenario to invalidate the short idea being consolidation directly below 200 before a strong breakout upward. (Yes, this strategy can backfire in case of a fake-out break-out, as can any strategy for a given trade idea). The risk to reward for swing trade shorts is very favorable here. That is an advantage to S&R trading. The disadvantage is that you better have a good risk tolerance/management and expect many of the ideas NOT TO WORK (position yourself accordingly). With this style, you will lose on occasion, especially when trying to catch a reversal in a strong trend. Others will put up a good argument for not fighting the trend, and I cannot completely disagree with this sentiment. There are good arguments to not take short trades here, and waiting for a turn first. Making money is more important than satisfying one's ego. This is just my view, take care of your own risk. I am not responsible for your losses.