The Fed, Congress and Obama have all been on a spending/money creation binge since October. (well Obama couldn't play until January). When (maybe if) we come out of this recession expect hyper inflation to appear. We have a government of morons who don't have a clue. I just hope we get a good market for a few months before everyone figures out how much trouble we are in. I may go into the printing press business. Everyone is going to need to print moneyh in their basement to keep up with the falling dollar. Can you say third world country? (Assuming the U.S. doesn't get nuked by Iran right after Israel.) Wally
spanish89, I happened to read your story. Quiet impressive. My question for you is: Usually traders get better and better as experience and skills grow. This is especially true for new traders. In your case, your recent performance is worse than when you started as a newbie. What's the reason for this unusual contrast? Have you analyzed carefully what you did right in the past and what you did wrong recently? Are you confident that you do have a trading strategy which gives you some edge or your past success happened to be due to luck? You don't need to answer me these questions. My intention is to inspire you to better analyse yourself. From I read, I feel you are a soul of high spirit, I believe you can identify the problems, make adjustments and improvements. This is the necessary process for every growing traders. Best wishes and good trading.
Phase III of this plan if the quantative easing fails as well is to then send every American a 75,000 dollar check and then Announce this on CNN,CNBC,etc.. You will see a pop in equities so fast that it will take 7 days to settle the trades.
The U.S. has fallen into the time old strategy of 'inflate or die.' Basically, this strategy is an overt attempt to screw over all creditors, foreign and domestic, as each dollar loaned to the U.S. will be paid back in dollars worth vastly less in real purchasing power. No one knows if the U.S. can even reflate asset prices, given the death spiral of deflation gripping the globe, no matter how insanely the federal reserve 'expands its balance sheet,' nor no matter how much stimulus the U.S. government ushers forth. It's all a shot in the dark at this point, and Bernanke is a disaster.
trading wise, correct. we don't know when all that money will be spent, and therefor whether the next big thing trade will still be the deflation trade or the inflation trade. but, longer term, the inflation trade is inevitable.
Right. Because the whole point of everything the FED and Gov't are doing is to cause inflation. They will print $'s until it happens.
Aloha mate and thanks for your friendly questions.. Hope your doing well recently. The reason why i did alot better previous was a combination of extreme volatility (that suits me alot) & also more capital (had between 6k t 9k for 4months) so was able to trade bigger size and so earnt more. I started trading partime while at college (last year in Febuary), and lost 2k in 3weeks at just £1 per tick on ftse (extremely impressive that i even managed to somehow do that). LOL Since it means that it was technically possible for me to have made 2,000points profit from the ftse in those 3weeks. I made the switch to specialising in crude oil in June, and due to sad personal reasons i was working 35 t 50hour days straight back then, so got the feel for the market. And the day that oil went above $137 i saw it was way too high as people couldnt afford it, and so i only sold oil in calping from then onwards. I didnt actually have a clear direct style or method back then, it was simply a case of ONLY SELLING, and just trying to get that sell in as high as possible on the day. (I used to sorta view days like triangles back then, so would try selling the middle top bit). I was good i guess though, as was doing about 100 t 400ticks profit per day, while scalping 20+ trades per day using a 12ticks spread. I only did sell trades all the way back down to $78s. And form then on knew my 'only selling' method wouldnt work, and so i had to just invent a new method and start using it to earn a living. lol So i just decided within a few minutes to range trade it by selling tops of big spikes/buying bottom of them. And from mid September onwards i started to really get professional though, had a clear style and method of trading intra-day reversals, specialising in focusing on entering on head n shoulders formations, and back with the great intraday volality we were havng i could smash 50ticks profit out of 6spikes per day, and at £3 - £9 per tick this added up to ALOT of easy easy money. And then from early October till end of year i ramped the size up to £8 - £14 per tick, only traded 2 t 3days per week for a few hours, but taking 50ticks out of 3spikes per day in those few hours and i had £1,000+ per day, eacy day. But from january this year onwards the market totally changed in its style of movement, it became EXTREMELY slow and all movements that used to take a few seconds t few minutes, now takes a few hours to even a few days sometimes. However i didnt change my style for the 3weeks between late Jan n mid Feb, and as a result i lost over £5,500. (doesn't sound like much to most people, but for me that was over 50% my capital). And then had to withdraw 1k more so had just 3.6k left. Then had some further bad luck (internet down on days when it was easy trades/cutting profitable trades seconds before they spiked 100ticks in seconds so really could have used internet cut that day/contract expiry manipulation/ and trading with too big size for ther lower capital), which led me to lose 3k over next few days. Things got extremely scary then, but its been 1month now from when i had to restart earning a living from just £605 capital, and im still alive and making money. (Still having lots of badluck and suffering from the problem ive always had of holding profitable trades for more than a few minutes/80ticks+, and thats really really hurt me badly) Since this month i bought the dow 3x at the 6500s, each trade had target of 7026, but eachtime i cashed in after just 60points profit. And i managed to miss those 3 250points+ really days, and instead made my money buying on the other 3days inbetween them, when the market was in down trends all day. lol And for oil i bought 4x in the 40s-42s, target was 44/46 each trade, but again i cashed each in way too early for just 60ticks profit. Its sad since just over 1week later the dow is nearly 1,000points higher, and oil is 800ticks higher. But i still manage to make 20% - 30% profit per week from very cautious trades, and so im just manging to get by on day-to-day survival focused existence. :/ So its been a hard tough drop from the days of making £1,000+ profit per day, to now having to make over 90% profit per month to just avoid becoming homeless and starving. But its given me the experience and forced me to develop the skils ability to be able to consistently make 20%+ profit per week from money i cant afford to lose (so can take extremely low risks only n have to turn lots of riskier trades down), just to abvoid being homeless and starving. Since while it is extremely unplesant and a horrificly stressful existence to have to live, its the 1 and only way that you can truely manage to get your trading skill to such a high extent. (Im not trying to brag or claim that im the master of trading or anything like that.. lol And im also not suggesting that anyone put themselve into my situation where they are 'forced' to make double digit % profit weekly just to avoid being homeless and starving, merely to try gaining the trading skill that you would need to survive, as its honestly no worth it, and im trying to get any sorta of stable income job asap) *Sorry to everyone else in this thread for taking it off topic btw and giving my trading life-story.
Hah, and people trashed me for stiffing the Credit Card companies when I became hopelessly unemployed at age 63.... I'm in pretty good company nowadays... and who talked hyperinflation and never talked any other scenario? I'll give you a hint, his first name is Fractals One thing people have to think about is their debt. I hate to say it but the inflation play is to mortgage all assets to the hilt and buy more assets that will inflate properly. Doing that at the bottom of the deflationary period is the perfect time to do it... If you are in default on debt already, the play is to steer the collectors into putting a lien on a real asset, after a few months of hyperinflation you can pay them off with lunch money...
I will instead tip my hat to you mate for doing that.. Since i did exactly the same early last year, and am extremely pleased with myself for doing it. Since while you can call it 'immoral', 'unfair'.... ect At the end of the day it merely was an opportunity. Thats exactly what trading is about, wait and looking for opportunities to get money out of other peoples accounts and into yours by whatever means necessary. There was the opportunity there as the banking system was collapsing anyways and so the end of the pre-approved creditcard industry, therefore it was the smart and logical thing to do in taking advantage of this opportunity while it lasted hust before it died.
And in relation to this aspect of your question the way that i manage to consistently keep making so much is quite simple. I simply have 1 trading motto- Entry Is Everything. While it may and does mean the i regularly miss out on ALOT more profit that i could have potentially made if id taken the risk of holding trades longer, it does mean that its extremely hard for me to ever endup having to take a loss on a trade. Since i specialise on trading reversals only, and so if you have extreme patience waiting for the entry, and only finally do it when the move is completely and totally exhausted, it will be then extremely hard for you to be forced into losing money on that trade, instead of being forced into profit. Im not a scalper or swing trader though, im an 'opportunist trader'. So i make alot less frequent trades than a scalper, and make alot less pips than a swinger trade, but so the few trades that i do make per week are extremely safe trades. I dont want to clog-up this thread with my own personal stuff though, but so anyone who is interested in my trading style please just checkout the thread where i explained my trading method step-by-step, and i can be found in my journal through the days where anyone is welcome to come chat. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=152873 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=134046