michael is right, the dow peaked on june 4th. it was a great bull market but it's time for the market to settle. the world's not gonna end but it's gonna come back from the peak it's at. look at how kkr struggled to get funding for it's last fund. the free money isn't there any longer. i have puts going out 6 months, to jan08. the 10 year is going higher and that's the tip.
No, michael is wrong. He gotten into some bad drugs and needs to lighten up. He is on a permanent downer. There are plenty of guys that think the year 2000 was the good ole days...not me...anyway When we get to the bottom of your double bottomless pit, we will be very bullish again. So............ STFU, MICHAEL!
When it comes to the action of price, I am all business. There is no emotion involved, no political views, no drugs and no women. When looking at the big picture, the market has moved up continually in a staircase formation since it first started trading over 100 years ago. It will move up in 15-20 year intervals and then there follows a consolidation stage of another 15-20 years. If the market were to suddenly break above its all time high and move to the 2200 level, then that would be a historical first. As we have learned with price in the past, trends seem to keep repeating themselves. In the 70s, I watched my father go through this same thing with the market. The market would move up and there was a universal good feeling in the air and then the market would retreat where all hell would break loose. This is the process of price consolidation. Now if the market moves down from here to the 1200 level, I would not say its a bad thing. Instead, you can buy the same stocks you are buying now at reduced pricings. You have to be honest with yourself and make a determination where the market is and where it isnt. The bull market ended in 2000 and now we are merely consolidating. The price will retreat from here and some of you will go through the same emotions that my father went through in the 70s. Now money can be made in a consolidating market. Indeed, there were stock brokers in the 70s who drove around in Ferraris. However, you just have to know how to play it. I wouldd say right now to wait on the sidelines with your cash and be ready to buy into the market when the dip occurs. Those who bought into the market days after the 1987 crash were richly rewarded. Those who got into the market in 2003 (rather then in 2000) were richly rewarded. Wait, watch and see.
Dear Michael- Indeed the market does move in broad cycles but preening them into 18 year packages is dangerous game. They are cycles within cycles and times when you can make great money even with the broad averages lagging. Where are we now? Well that's for talking heads to debate-- what is happening now? That is for me and you. The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood. "Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank. The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system. "Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said. The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity. "The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry. Some 40pc of China's state-owned enterprises are loss-making, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn. It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalance, uncoordinated and unsustainable", borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust. It said this approach had failed in the US in 1930 and in Japan in 1991 because excess debt and investment build up in the boom years had suffocating effects. While cutting interest rates in such a crisis may help, it has the effect of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors and "sowing the seeds for more serious problems further ahead." The bank said it was far from clear whether the US would be able to shrug off the consequences of its latest imbalances, citing a current account deficit running at 6.5pc of GDP, a rise in US external liabilities by over $4 trillion from 2001 to 2005, and an unprecedented drop in the savings rate. "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence," it said. The BIS said last year's record issuance of $470bn in collateralized debt obligations (CDO), and a further $524bn in "synthetic" CDOs had effectively opened the lending taps even further. "Mortgage credit has become more available and on easier terms to borrowers almost everywhere. Only in recent months has the downside become more apparent," it said. CDO's are bond-like packages of mortgages and other forms of debt. The BIS said banks transfer the exposure to buyers of the securities, giving them little incentive to assess risk or carry out due diligence. Mergers and takeovers reached $4.1 trillion worldwide last year. Leveraged buy-outs touched $753bn, with an average debt/cash flow ratio hitting a record 5.4. "Sooner or later the credit cycle will turn and default rates will begin to rise," said the bank. "The levels of leverage employed in private equity transactions have raised questions about their longer-term sustainability. The strategy depends on the availability of cheap funding," it said. That may not last much longer. >> Wow what a sobering read, now these fat pansy bankers they are to blame why should this roil me or you? It shouldn't I think these damn hedge funds can go under and their stupid greedy ass brokerages can lose half their value- who cares? Look at Bear Sterns it's a mother fucking 120 dollar stock! If it goes to $60 or $65 it will only be at normalized levels of a couple years ago. I bought Goldman Sacks at $90 I know how ridiculous these prices are- to stick around and wait for the stick across the face... well that's just asking for it. Consider these weird CDO's - Well anything that returns 40 consecutive months of 1 plus % returns should catch your attention, then when leverage is added and derivatives OBVIOUSLY used> the Hedge Fund in question was called " Enhanced " for gods sake these banks knew just what they were getting into. Sure it feels like Mexico all over again or the Asian meltdown but it is not it's a small section of the overall debt market; it's rich bankers and their greed and they will have to deal with it. It's a ponzi scheme now for them> off load, off load, spread risk, spread risk-- until just some small entity gets burned. The talking heads on TV would like to pass this fear onto you and me it's not going to happen, especially not in earnings season. If rates make it harder to borrow and lenders tighten their credit to only credit worthy folks sure a little bitty bitty growth comes out of the economy but as an input goes better credit worthiness so it's a wash- I'd rather have fewer better capitalized buyouts, than every brand name we know scooped up loaded with debt and offered back to us. Blackstone are a bunch of quantified idiots they bought into Sam Zells real estate empire just as it crumbled and now they are going public just at a time for heightened scrutiny of BOTH buyouts and the super rich: it's a timing fiasco. And now an IPO that's broken it's collar! I agree Michael that this year has had the feeling all along of a " massive setback " I won't call it a crash but of a big 20% correction... no doubt..but we will have to accelerate more for that to happen- think hockey stick not humpty hump we have to rocket up and be up 15% or more for the year before we can really take a massive nosedive which will leave us limping into the new year happy to be up 5% to 7% about where we are now. Upside before downsides, cycles within cycles, that's the beauty, the art, of this thing we call investing. ~ stoney
A quick look at yesterday & today's & tomorrows action. Lousy economic data ahead of the two day FOMC meeting- weak housing, autos, and continued rumblings in the sub-prime and derivative space should compel the Fed to "adjust" its policy statement (due for release tomorrow at 2:15 PM ET), to show a friendlier, more accommodative posture regarding the prospect of a rate cut. Such a verbal shift by the Fed towards ease will ignite a very serious rally I believe.... Stocks did gave up early gains for the second day in a row, as overhead resistance of the 50-day moving average held the S&P 500 in check. The S&P 500, up 0.7% at its mid-day peak, slid to a 0.3% loss in the afternoon. Like the previous day, all of the major indices closed in the bottom third of their intraday ranges. Turnover was nearly on par with the previous day's levels. Total volume in the Nasdaq increased by 2%, but volume in the NYSE was unchanged. The 0.1% loss in the Nasdaq was technically NOT substantial enough to label the session another "distribution day. Based on yesterday's bearish close in the futures, the S&P 500 is now positioned to open just below its prior low from June, so be prepared for a volatile open. An abundance of stops just below the June lows are likely to result in choppy trading this morning. Of the five major stock market indexes the Nasdaq Composite is the only one that remains above its 50-day MA. It has touched it in each of the last two sessions, but closed above it both times!! Thursday at 2:00 PM, we should see a powerful reaction. At this point we effectively have an S&P test of 1487. There is a lower Fibonacci downside extension line at 1483 so downside support is 1483 to 1487. Failure to hold there opens Pandora's Box with a downside Fibonacci extension line at 1457. The NASD is down five of the past seven trading days. While the trend is clearly down and the NASD needs to get above 2590 to break the down trend, the negative internal momentum is waning. The Daily negative breadth readings peaked in early June and the bad days have been progressively less weak. Tuesday NASD breadth was noticeably better (read: less bad) than NYSE breadth. >>This typically signals an important CHANGE OF TREND is approaching. Since the trend now is down, the message is: look for a turn HIGHER with the NASD leading the way. And that's the way it is... ~ SI
RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW!....... Wish i could find that song folks. it's line in the sand time and we begin to turn the mothership here it won't be easy but LOOK Dow down 30 NAZ up 1 MARKET IS SENDING A MESSAGE .... Message in a bottle, wish I could find that song right now... Is it a COINCIDENCE that my inflection points of change are signaling NOW & We have a FED meeting! AND we have a I PHONE release? >It's as easy as 1, 2, 3 folks that's how we get out of trouble. 1> Fed implies what we now know to be true.. Beige Book said slowdown not as bas as feared. Inflation indicators pointing down. Things have changed since the last meeting and it's about time the Fed chastened the whole high yield mess but patted himself on the back for the soft landing that is upon us. Some verbiage their especially on pickup in growth tied into less inflation if the FED could just indicate he would be willing to lower rates into increasing growth- if inflation remained under control-- if he could just get that out.... Oh I love economics! Can't hide it. Don't know jack about it really but I understand the position Ben is in and I think I know what he is going to do... we will see. 2> I Phone release madness. We know the i phone is going to lift a lot of boats we already know Broadcom is in the system that came out in court transcripts and we know that MRVL is in there and NVDA through their portal player purchase & Immersion and Synaptics look to be in there too, perhaps QI as well... It will be interesting to watch. Touch screen tech obviously is going to be big here... if it works! 3> SURPRISE HERE FOLKS! I believe we are going to get a China announcement in timing with the next leg up. The announcement: the big Chinese insurers to increase their holdings of US stocks to 15% from 5% this will be huge. Though they are apt to buy big Cap I think the excitement felt in our market by new money finding it's way here will in turn lure back european money that has been investing elsewhere... it's just the jump start we need. And through back channels I believe this announcement will come at JUST THE RIGHT TIME. ~ stoney
And there she turns boys & girls. I gave you the absolute low there by the time the last post hit we just turned rudder. Russell blasting off as you can see.... Now for the some acceleration please!
Your postss are entertaining, but you're hardly ever right about anything to do with broad economics or market moves. Nothing personal..just pointing out that the market is still slightly in the red and you're cheering like a kid for ice cream. Have you been losing a lot of money or something?
SiSi you have got to be kidding me if I've proved one thing on this site is I call general market corrections & rebounds to the day. Look back and you will see 1 1/2 weeks before the shit hit the fan I was there for you " I'm In 25% Cash " post. Look back further the VERY DAY THIS WHOLE RECENT BULL MOVE started I was cheering like a kid as you say and I spat out "10 stocks to buy now" 8 out of 10 through the roof Amigo. If you want to go stockpicking which I notice you didn't mention obviously i wipe you off the face of the map-- but back to the economics I fess to the largess of the topic but I dare say i've lived and invested through more Fed missteps than you and as such am well qualified to let you know what is about to happen.... Listen you don't kid a kidder and you don't throw out garbage assessments of my work as you just did. I have a list an arms length long of completing sites that want me.. a motley list to be sure but some interesting start up ideas that want to pay me for the privilege of following my moves in the market I'm toying with the idea but safety concerns to my trading account are keeping me away for the moment... And if I sound angry YES I FUCKED MY ACCOUNT UP! FORCE PROTECTION and DXPE TOOK ME from up 51% on the year to barely up 40%. Not happy about it. especially since I have already spent that 10%. ~ stoney
Thanks...I'll go back and reread when I have time, but I've not seen you correctly call broad market moves. I'll look back and check it out. As for wiping me off the map, I doubt it. My picks might not rock right away, but I've had a few ten baggers and many more doubles and triples that I can't even remember. You really kind of just tried to blow yourself in that last post. And I'm up well over 100% on the year already.