What The F And Where The H Are We?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jun 25, 2007.

  1. Some things never change. Life is definite not a beach when the stock market is involved. How many times have I been baking there with my grnadpa radio blaring-- the bad news rolling in like waves, the market in free fall, my broker vibrating the cell phone, my wife asking what's the matter? ... why always in the summer?

    Can't we all just play nice? When I left I had finally figured it out. To be a bear was wrong the corrections would be shallow. Then a couple distressing things... some senator and congressman begin tweaking corporate structures and taxes (I'm for it!) and the hedge funds understand that to drive down the market NOW makes the markets look like they are sending a message to the politicos not to meddle.
    Don't believe the hype. The war against prosperity as that idiot Larry Kudlow call it - I'm not even sure he's an idiot which makes it worse- continues. The hedge funds will not win this tug of war, not with so much of America disgusted by these payouts. If anyone really connects all the dots here kingdoms will fall....

    Some bits and drabs that have caught my attention in a bad way, Fortress getting into the newspaper game owning all these small town newspapers where editorials can lead peoples thinking, China then getting into Fortress. Leverage. Think about it. Will we have pro China reports in these papers. Remember Rupert Murdoch's publishing imprint gave Trent Lott the book deal of a lifetime & then the senator returned the favor with a vote on allowing him to keep extra TV stations over the limit allowed by any one entity? Didn't seem important then but now this Australian is emboldened to swallow the Wall Street Journal. As American an institution as you can get. Lets talk about Tops for a moment. BLACKSTONE + Rising Interest rates = TOP in private Equity... Wall Street Journal goes the way of
    Fair & Balanced FOX-style reporting = stocks entering this " foreign infatuation phase " which will burn out VERY badly. have you seen the flow of funds to europe funds over US? Sickening. The late arrivers always to the slaughter. interest RATES GOING UP IN EUROPE because of growth or because they have to? STAGFLATION how do you say that in French and German? Let's hope their bankers know of the concept. It's the same here but to a lesser degree... we have this nice housing problem which is holding our Fed back and allowing for money to be pumped into the system. With every nice company we know of is swallowed up and spit back out fat with debt where will it all end and did it just? The new trend seems to be buy EXTREMELY large portions of your stock back and BORROW heavily to do so-- it's a last ditch effort to ward off Private equity assume the debt load before they can,. debt, debt and more debt... it's starting to be a problem.

    Stocks certainly ruined my fiesta last with a round of substantial declines on Friday, breaking some key technical support levels in the process. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%, the S&P 500 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.4%. Small-caps showed relative strength, as the Russell 2000 Index fell just 0.6%. The S&P Midcap 400 Index shed 1.0%. THIS IS BIG FOLKS>>!
    Our BIG FEAR that everyone would just by Pfizer and IBM and Coke and not need the stonedinvestor is starting to look like a head fake. The Nazdog setting a new high here first would be really, really BIG it would be back to the small cap party which is oh so good for us all.

    > Volume in both exchanges did indeed rocket higher, but the surge was DECEIVING, as it was primarily driven by the annual rebalancing of the Russell! Was the Russelll strength then also deceiving? Or Impressive?- considering all the exits from the index too? I'm still wrestling with that question. Anyway taking into account false volume- The S&P and Nasdaq DID NOT register another distribution day in my view. Friday's weakness did cause the S&P 500 to close below its 50-day moving average for the first time since March 30 though... Obviously this is technically bearish, but the S&P only closed three points below the 50-day MA -- lets not call it a TREND yet. It's also notable that all the other major indices still remain above their 50-day MAs. Thanks primarily to the recent strength in the Semiconductor Index ($SOX), The Nasdaq 100 is still just a few points below its multi-year high and is even holding above its 20-day EMA so far!

    1490 S&P becomes a line in the sand> My sources tell me a break below 1,490 would trigger a round of institutional selling. That I don't need, it would lead to the "double top" formation in the S&P that I'm trying not to notice being confirmed.

    Folks the economic calendar really picks up this week. We get Existing Home sales for May today and Tuesday we get New Home sales for May. More importantly, the FOMC also meets this week, on the 27th and the 28th. So we have an FOMC policy statement due at 2:00 PM on the 28th, mark that as cocktail time! things will surely get volatile. The futures did rebound to healthy premiums after the close on Friday, bettering the odds that what we just saw was a near term and tradable low. All the action since the June 1 highs in fact is that of a large corrective move. The 76% pullback level is 1499!( remember my 1490 Line In The Sand number ) and the SPX came very close to that point on Friday.

    Now the push to end of quarter mark ups can begin if we get through this week. There is a lagging doubt to everything- the cynical nature of our corporate friends- the low balling of estimates only to beat them seems SO OBVIOUS now. Will Investors fall for it ONE MORE TIME before the REAL meltdown over sub prime begins... We Say Hell YES! > ~ stoney
  2. Stoney - you are a real badass mofo. Very entertaining and informative post.
  3. Stoney, the market will collapse AFTER capitulate to the long-side.
  4. Write so much while saying so little...
  5. He actually says quite a bit...but you have to be able to have the brainpower to muster decoding groups of words into meaning. These are called sentences and they are the way us non-retards communicate. Didn't they teach you this at retarded day-care? :confused: :D
  6. trendo


    Agreed, the post was entertaining and thought provoking.
  7. You are a babbling moron.
  8. Its a very simple concept.

    The all-time high of the SPX is at about 1550 dating back to the year 2000. In 2000, the index chopped around and then finally turned down. Then we had a classic rounded bottom forming a cup. The right peak of the cup was at 1540.

    Therefore the SPX failed to move over the 1550 line.

    In a formation like this, there are either buyers or sellers when the right peak is hit. It appears there were sellers this time around and we will correct back down probably to the 1100-1200 region.

    Now the indexes will chop around for a bit, but the ultimate direction will be down. What is the positive news for there to be buyers?

    I was there in 2000 and experienced this same chop of the SPX before it pointed down. This chop will frustrate and bankrupt the best of them.
  9. 1100-1200....in what time frame?
  10. Your an evil person, and a bigot towards Americans.
    #10     Jun 25, 2007