Is there a TA tool (indicator or method) that can detect if some data points are not generated by a random walk simulation? If you are using TA method that can not detect "random walk" data, what makes you confident that you have an edge? Do you think it is better to be lucky than good? Do you care if you make your money from luck or skills? If you say skills, can you prove that you can detect random walk data. I mean if I give you two sets of data (charts) with 10,000 points each can you tell which one is from a random walk simulation? My opinion is that the vast majority of TA indicators can not detect random walk simulation. I am curious if this can be proven. If we apply our favorite TA tool to both set's of data (the random one and the actual market data) and we find that data set 1 contains more wins than data set 2 we should assume that set 1 is the real one. Let's say we do this 100 times and we have correctly detected the real set at least 51% of the time. Is this a prove that our TA tool works or is it luck? What success % will be needed to make sure the TA tool works? My intuition tells me that random walk simulation data will perfectly match actual market data some times. There will be no way to distinguish them. Also the actual market data for the last 100 years for example is just one possible version of many random walk simulation runs for the same period. I think that if we run random walk simulation gazillion times. We will get many simulated data versions that match the actual data from the last 100 years. This should also apply for a very short term data. Like the last 1 sec. for example. The actual market data is only a subset from the gazillion possible versions of random walk simulated data. If this is true, does it mean anything to the TA trader? Who cares if the data is random or not? Is there an approach that can profit from random data? It seems that some traders suggest that there are situations where the data is not random. For example a huge buy order comes to the market. But why will the big buyer be dumb enough not to randomize the order? Perhaps the buyer is in distress and shows his cards? Is this what we should be looking for? Could it be possible that all market players, from the individual trader to the most sophisticated market makers are just trying to get lucky?