If you have sound logic to believe there is a 65% chance something will happen... Then that's a prediction. I don't know why this guy is hung up thinking anyone is talking about predicting with 100% certainty.
What in the world are you talking about?? Any time you place a bet you have an implied prediction...trend following,mean reversion,long gamma short gamma.. By your definition,go sell the tails as big as you can..Odd are you will be a great predictor 95 percent of the time
My story is actually more complex as my job was eliminated because of the volcker rule. I was offered a position to trade prop within the flow business but I didn’t enjoy it. I figured it was time to execute my 10 year plan: use my net worth to do something entrepreneurial. Given that you are aiming to be a plumber, I will hazard to say my trading account is up more this year than your entire lifetime earnings will be. good luck in your search to become profitable without trying to predict the future. Maybe you will be one of those guys “who doesn’t predict, only reacts.” But since words mean things my guess is that you will end up just trading stock with a random number generator.
Take Profit and Stop Loss. I was just using this as a general term... But you could also say the Max Profit or Max Loss from options spreads, etc.