What should the VIX be at in order to sell options where RvR is worth it

Discussion in 'Options' started by treker5150, Mar 3, 2017.

  1. water7

    water7

    do you hedge your vol? (at 15-16 line)
     
    #31     Mar 7, 2017
  2. jj90

    jj90

    If I understand you correctly in your post here, you are implicitly saying that vol regimes are auto correlated?

    As in 15-16 line tends to see lower vol without a large spike while say a 25 vix print tends to see an increasing chance of a vol spike?

    So you are able to hedge more effectively to a degree at lower vix levels because the distribution is not as wild?
     
    #32     Mar 8, 2017
  3. At 25 VIX there is really no hedging. All risk instruments have already blown up, you will be leaning on mean reversion. Nothing wrong with that if you size yourself properly and are able to time the turns. As for vol leading to more vol, that certainly has not been the case in recent years but I don't want to be a seller when it is. Not to say that I never go naked but there has to be something more than just vol being "high" to entice me into selling it. Like a dislocation for example that tends to happen when the liquidity starts to dry up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
    #33     Mar 8, 2017
    tommcginnis and sle like this.
  4. sle

    sle

    Funny, I think there are more dislocations across various forms of risk premium at the times of stress. I guess it depends on the exact strategies you're trading
     
    #34     Mar 8, 2017
  5. But they are mostly of the short vol or long delta variety. Meaning you have to step in front of the selloff with a little bit of faith. Are you often finding "cheap" risk premium in times of stress?
     
    #35     Mar 8, 2017
    guspenskiy13 likes this.
  6. sle

    sle

    Cheap? No. Relatively cheap? All the time. I hear your point, it's that we do different things
     
    #36     Mar 8, 2017
  7. truetype

    truetype

    Recent? Graph seems to end in 2015.
     
    #37     Mar 8, 2017
  8. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    And "size" here means total $$ exposure, not some "number of contracts" or "width of longs vis shorts" or some such.

    If you sell something for 50¢ at a 10 vol, and "something bad happens" and the vol pop takes things to a vol of 20+ and your 50¢ sale has to be re-purchased for $2.25 ("OOoowwwwwww!") -- the thing is, that in that same expiry, you can move a percent OR TWO away, and possibly get $1.90 for the same width ("net $$ @ risk"). If you were dealing in 5-lots, simply bumping that up to 6 nets you ≈ the same dollars.

    Where things become a pain-in-the-butt, is when the daily burn (time; theta) is about equal to a daily slide down (re delta) and/or any "bump" in vol. *That*, if carried long enough, will find you with a spread worth the same as where you sold it, but now with a gamma-POP[!] ready to punch you right in the nose. So, I *try* to parachute out of that.
     
    #38     Mar 8, 2017