Discussion in 'Stocks' started by crgarcia, Aug 29, 2008.
I'm wondering if retail stocks are going to do well over the next year. I noticed a lot of them moving up in tandem over the last few days, but is it short sellers covering? I don't know. Casinos have been moving up in tandem too, but same question, is it simply the shorts closing out? The only stock I own right now makes point-of-sale transaction printers for casinos and stores, and it's moving up on higher than usual volume.
Thumbing through my notebook, I see that on Friday the 15th JCP, KSS, DUCK, TWB, GCO, SMRT lead retailers up that day. I also noted that the consumer non-dura section moved up as a sector which is unusual as that sector almost never leads up or down on any given day. When I looked into it, the stocks that lead the way in that sector that day were textile stocks.
Solar/Alternative energy. It is the future, and presently "green" is the new thing
And if you study Point & Figure charting you can figure-out the answer.
I have some observations.
Please examine the attached chart of Novastar Financial stock symbol was NFI now NOVS.PK.
I notice that about September 2002, when the Stardard and Poors 500 index value was at or near a new low value for the year, the price of NFI stock was greater than the low price for the year.
I do not recall many stocks that behaved in this way at the time - trading at price values greater than the low price record.
According to http://www.hoovers.com/novastar-financial/--ID__55028--/free-co-profile.xhtml "the company originated, invested in, and serviced nonconforming residential mortgages and invested in mortgage-backed securities."
I suspect the great relative strength of NFI signaled the coming boom in real estate and mortgage business.
I also notice the sudden stock price reduction about April 2004 and February 2005. Research might reveal problems in the mortgage and real estate sector long before trouble was generally known.
My point is that the price behavior of leading stocks provides clues to leading stock and industry groups.
Readers might wish to examine and research recent price behavior of Union Pacific Corporation stock symbol UNP.
Keeping watch on the stocks on the 52 week high list might show some leaders. If a stock is on the list now then something positive might be happening.
Mil stocks, oil Mccain. Obama, Alternative energy, tech.
ie: GE would do well under Obama, XOM/BP under McCain.
Even if a president wins, democrat or republican, its incredibly difficult to change policies. I dont think the election will have as big of an impact as you think, more importantly the biggest impact will be where economic cycle is at. Maybe domestic consumption will increase? Maybe retailers will be doing better..What I am banking on though are stocks that have the ability too substitute domestic slowdown with increased exportation, which many have been doing. My picks are TIE, and ATI both because Titanium is so effecient, and any excess supply can easily be exported...Tie recently had that big reverse head and shoulders, if you got in earlier you are a happy man. ATI has found strong support.. Also EXM and DRYS, because earnings have been amazing and their support levels are very strong around their recent price levels. Besides the chart, commodity costs have been rising, and dry bulk shippers are a good way too take advantage of that increased commodoity demand worldwide. Too throw a couple others in their are KFRC and ASGN, both Staffing services stocks...While I think growth in that sector can be strong as it has been lately(probbably due too he increase in unemployment, unemployment data reports Sept. 5th, be ready for the jump in these two stocks if unemployment increases.), owning these is more of a hedge against decreased production(which has been pushing most stocks down) leading to unemployment.
Separate names with a comma.