"We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know." Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense
It should be simple and logic at start when observing the markets. Finding the correct, optimal execution however can take years... or even never come for most people. I noticed that already a very long time ago. But I only saw it in hindsight. So it was a question of seeing this in advance. It took me over 10 years to use price only in a profitable and consistent way. Price is also the only parameter that defines your losses. If prices don't move, you will go nowhere, no matter how spectacular the news or events are. News or any other event does not garantee that the price will follow. Reaction from the markets can be opposite from what the market expected to happen. Price moves will be more reliable than news moving the price (correctly). News can cause faster reactions, but prices more often indicate correctly the direction. So the failed attempts of news (or anything else) generate much more losses and finally cost more than price mistakes.
Watching prices move is a good starter. For 2 weeks or more. Write down what you observe. You'll be surprised, that after a while you can start to correctly guess some moves. From there on you will automatically develop a system. Risk management and also psychology / avoiding gambling mistakes are the next steps.