What really happened ....11 september

Discussion in 'Politics' started by NickBarings, Dec 5, 2006.

  1. Maverick1

    Maverick1

    Hey Version77,

    Your list of questions is great, why don't you forward it to the people that can make a difference, such as those on the 9/11 commission or other officials. Just try that, and see if you get a response. Hint: Don't hold your breath.
     
    #481     Dec 26, 2006
  2. no offense but you seem to be so gullible... chumpsky is a shill... a liar and a traitor.
     
    #482     Dec 26, 2006
  3. dpt

    dpt

    Thank you, too, for your response.

    Experiment: No Way!

    An experiment on the required scale is completely out of the question.

    But I think it is conceivable to try to do a numerical calculation of maximum
    pressures and interfloor air flows that could be achieved in the tower
    collapses, taking into account the actual geometry of the towers, as well as
    what we know about the time scales involved.

    That calculation would give a better sense whether my, and Turok's much better
    elaborated, discussion of a scenario for production of the few `squibs' that
    are seen well below the collapse front is at least conceivable,
    or is in fact theoretically ruled out. That's all that I meant by backing up
    my speculation.

    Ultimately one wants to write some differential equations whose solution will
    give the air pressure over time in the uncollapsed portions of the building,
    possibly given varying assumptions about what doors are open and closed.

    But the real starting point, I think, is just to get rough estimates of the
    way air pressure evolves with time for the air contained within a single
    collapsing story, given that you know how the volume of the region evolves up
    until the windows fail.

    With those initial numbers one could begin to consider how much of the air
    might be driven downwards in the collapse of each successive story, versus how
    much would go out of the windows when they fail.

    It's obviously a dynamical question, with various, and varying timescales
    involved -- the whole collapse takes place within a time which is the same
    order of magnitude as the free fall time, though it is of course,
    larger than the free fall time, as it must be -- and this gives an
    average collapse time for each individual story in the building, but the
    collapse also accelerates as time proceeds.

    One needs to know the strength of various materials such as the window glass;
    the actual geometry and resistance coefficients of the possible air flow paths
    running between floors in the trade center, and undoubtedly many other factors
    which I haven't yet considered in order to attempt to give any realistic
    numbers.

    All of this is hard to do. I'ld certainly want to talk to a structural
    engineer familiar with the towers before even starting.

    My intuition is that surprisingly high pressures may indeed be
    achievable on floors near to the collapse front, and that if a path exists for
    air to flow to very much lower floors, those pressures could well be
    transmitted downwards ahead of the collapse.

    But, to be quite frank: since I would not, not even if my proposed explanation
    were shown to be impossible, and NO other possible explanation were to
    be found -- consider the appearance of a few random dust plumes on floors well
    below the collapse front, which seem to you and to others to look like those
    that might be produced by explosive devices, to be the smoking gun that
    establishes beyond a reasonable doubt that there were explosive devices
    involved, I'm simply not going to make the attempt in the first place.


    Well, I could simply respond that the best a posteriori estimate
    of the probability of occurrence of an event, given that the event has
    occurred, is always equal to 1. But that would be possibly impolite.

    You clearly consider the number to be closer to 0.

    Of course, I have already admitted above that I have no way of making such a
    probability calculation in the first place, so I'm certainly not going to play
    the game, given that I don't have a precise mechanism to work with :p

    My answer that the probability is equal to 1 is naturally contingent on my
    assumption that there were no explosive squibs involved, and that mine was the
    actual mechanism for producing the dust plumes. My intent was only to
    establish a possible alternative explanation for the fact that dust
    plumes or `squibs' appear some 20 floors (or was it 30 or 40 floors) below the
    collapse front, at some time during the collapse. If I had completed
    that task then I'ld be more than satisfied.

    I submit that in fact, the relevant conditional probability calculation for
    you, if you hold to the conspiracy theory, is the one for the probability that
    there were explosive `squibs' involved in the first place.

    And for that question I personally would say you need to look to other
    determining evidence ... there would have to be quite a few of these `squibs,'
    in order to collapse the towers. Not just the few apparently visible on lower
    floors whose appearance you, very correctly in my view, find to be puzzling.

    I should say that hundreds might be required at a minimum, in order to cut the
    support at a critical point in the building and initiate a collapse. And
    then, why is there no evidence at all of remnants of detonators, tape,
    explosive materials, etc., such as I expect would be easily found in
    the case of an actual controlled demolition?

    Recall, too, that in the 1993 terrorist attack there was no difficulty
    whatsoever in detecting explosives.

    These `squibs' would need to have been emplaced and wired over a fairly
    significant period of time, with the work remaining concealed from a very
    large number of potential witnesses. I think a total of about 100,000 people
    worked in the towers in total, with around 50,000 being present on average in
    a typical 24 hour period. Granted, not all of these people would have had the
    possibility of seeing what was going on. But still, there would be a lot of
    potential witnesses, and it seems very likely that at least some of these
    would have been both well informed enough, and in a position to know something
    wrong was taking place.

    One can certainly insist that, nevertheless, all of this might have been
    achieved, but it seems that if things did happen this way, then there must at
    least have been a very extensive conspiracy among the people who carried it
    out, and not a single person involved ever spoke up about it, and no hint
    of the conspiracy has come to light.

    All of this seems inherently very unlikely to me.

    So in the absence of real physical evidence for explosive devices, and in the
    presence of what seems to be a convincing standard story of the mechanism for
    the tower collapses, which is certainly at least generally consistent
    with the observed facts, I conclude that the standard story best fits the
    evidence.

    Naturally I would consider what the witnesses had to say if I were a juror in
    court.

    I don't mean to, and I do not in fact, dismiss the eyewitness accounts
    wholesale: I simply consider that their accounts are not directly
    probative
    of the existence of explosive devices, and that there may be other
    explanations for what they heard and saw. At best, eyewitness reports of what
    was heard might be strongly suggestive of explosive devices, only rarely could
    they be considered probative on their own in a case like this.

    The reasons are that the scale of this scene is almost unimaginably large in
    comparison to any one person, and the relevant time scale for hearing the
    explosions of the `squibs' in question is relatively short: there are
    certainly not much more than 20 seconds each during which the collapse of each
    tower takes place. During these seconds, there was certainly a
    tremendous amount of other noise being produced. This was a very
    extreme situation. All of that tends to lead to people's accounts being
    confused, especially if they are not experienced emergency workers.

    If the suggestion is that there were lots of other, say much larger explosions
    that weakened the structure, taking place independent of the `squibs,' and
    previous to the actual collapse, and that it was these that were overheard by
    witnesses, then I think that the conspiracy theory of the collapse is becoming
    a bit too overengineered ... too baroque to be likely.

    It's always necessary in any case to consider the weight that should be
    attached to any witnesses' testimony in the light of the quality of the
    opportunity they had to observe the events that they testify about, as well as
    any special knowledge and experience that they might have, or might need to
    have to draw conclusions. How many were knowledgeable about explosives, for
    example?

    If all of the testimony were combined with solid physical evidence of
    the explosives in question, then I think it would be a very different matter.

    Cheers!
     
    #483     Dec 27, 2006
  4. do a search, on forbes and rodriguez, both men worked at the twin towers and the first held a position of responsibilty. in a video they talk about a power down before 911...something unprecedented on of a kind event...with drilling, wiring and so on.
     
    #484     Dec 27, 2006
  5. man

    man

    i must admit, that i did not know him before i posted
    the youtube link at all. i just felt he said what sums up
    my feelings. after your post i googled a little.

    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky

    still cannot judge whether he is a liar or a traitor, but
    if someone with very obvious left orientation does not
    believe in a conspiracy by people he constantly criticises
    that sounds not that bad too me regarding his ability
    to judge as objective as possible.

    no offense taken ... :)
     
    #485     Dec 27, 2006
  6. man

    man

    dpt

    i like your style of argument. in addition to your squib
    comments i ask myself if it would not be absolutely
    surprising if there were none. i mean the down coming
    floors MUST have resulted in air pressure below. and
    i would find it astonishing if the surface of the building
    would be so tight, that NOTHING comes out. the question
    is whether something that looks like a squib must BE
    a squib. i'd say no.

    cheers.
     
    #486     Dec 27, 2006
  7. man

    man

    http://www.thisisbradford.co.uk/new...ls_skipton_audience_of_strange_explosions.php

    here is a more detailed discussion on it:
    http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=66809

    arguments going back and forth. very difficult to judge
    - at least for me.

    i think the only solution to this is a public hearing. or
    however you want to call it. laugh about it. and then
    think of any other solution. there are not only lunatics
    claiming something is wrong.
     
    #487     Dec 27, 2006
  8. what is difficult to judge? i mean pieces connect together perfectly...especially if u consider that the company that run the drills is owned by marvin bush, u know the wacko's bro.
     
    #488     Dec 27, 2006
  9. #489     Dec 27, 2006
  10. if that aint sound of explosives going off i dont know what it is.
     
    #490     Dec 27, 2006