Ultimately I believe that "perceived future value" dictates the price. However, in the short term, I believe that that big money, initiates price moves and then the fear/greed factors of the smaller investor/speculator accelerates and accentuate the move.
Yes IN2WIN....I believe it is the perception too. The degree of that perception becomes the urgency. Traditionally, institutional money scales into positions, and takes larger positions when they buy on fear and sell on greed. The relationship between the institutions and the individuals nad they how they perceive the markets is a a powerful and necessary part of the market. The best setups are worthless without the perception (momentum) to push it.