What pair reflects the price of Crude?

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by Kastro_316, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. Hey guys,

    What pair do you all think reflects the price of crude oil? CAD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY???

    It is a good time to make any oil plays.
  2. Hey Kastro,

    Hm... well, the nation of USD would definitely reflect Crude prices.

    Next, perhaps, JPY, since it sort of reflects RMB's dependence, too?

    I was even thinking AUD or NZD since they are both heavily into oil usage.

    A particular pair best reflecting Crude price volatility?

    May not be as tight as that.

    Would be nice if it were! :)

  3. USD/CAD is for Oil

    AUD/USD is for Gold

  4. Murray Ruggiero

    Murray Ruggiero ET Sponsor

  5. Arch,

    Are you indicating AUD/USD moves in perfect sync with gold prices?

    And, same with USD/CAD for oil.. perfect sync?

  6. perfect synch...hehe..no

    dude you don't need to dumb yourself down for me...ok?


  7. Dude... I'm not!

    I just didn't put them together.

    I felt ashamed so I wanted to clarify it.

    As the god of FX, I should know these things.

    ps: I've actually heard about the AUD/GOLD link but never put much stock in it.
    CAD/OIL? Never saw it.
  8. That Bank of Canada is really tring to keep CAD from USD parity. (or close to it anyway)

    The bastard said he will not raise rates even if inflation is a problem. USD/CAD is no longer a good proxy for Crude.

    Let's hope Market Forces introduces a slap to Mr. Dodge's face and he's forced to hike rates anyway.
  9. Murray Ruggiero

    Murray Ruggiero ET Sponsor

    The Canada dollar is a reasonably good predictor of Crude, but has not done well in 2006. If you use my intermarket divergence model using a positive correlation and use a 10 day moving average for crude and a 35 moving average for CAD, you make $67,500.00 with a drawdown of under 12K. You also win just under 60% of your trades. This relationship decouples sometimes for several years at a time and I still like oil stocks groups to predict Crude better.

    If you want to see more intermarket analysis with Crude , you can see it here.