If you're looking at a multi-month move, it doesn't matter. The important question is whether or not you want to be in the trade. If you're afraid to take it, deal with that first.
And I suppose you never been on wrong side of trade when some news comes out? If not tells me you not traded many years as it happens to all. Problems with fundamentals is companies statements never tell what the company is really doing, so I think it is bunch of estimates and dreams they sell the public. Those who can't read charts well enough are is like a feather in wind. Am certainly not saying every move shows up in charts, but fundamentals lag is hugely behind when to get out or go short. Depends on your skill level, if you newbie-you are bait, if you been trading 40 years-should seldom have many losses. If I had five hours learning to fly 747 and AA cutting back on Captains who have 20,000 hours of flying, want to bet your life on which one going to fly you? I have tried three times finding the bottom, it is how I trade long term commodities, I have scored one of them reaching first target on half position, one became breakeven along with hedge and third hedges kicked in to save me from losses. I anticipate Crude Oil will go lower, between 20-30 maybe, I will continue to look for buys once price gets lower and use 2 minute charts and volume to tell me when to buy again with hedges. As far as Supply/Demand whether crude, soybeans, indexes, coffee-numbers really don't matter as much as they did in 1980s.
How the hell do they make a chart from 1800's LOL. (And with volume.) Yeah but it is crazy that it looks like charts from today.
Great question. I've read all the answers and thought I'd post since none of them go much beyond the superficial reasons stock prices move up. But first, let me explain "price" since it seems to be understood from a consumer's perspective rather than a market perspective. It's a mistake to think of the price you see on a chart as "the price" in the same way as you view the price on a can of beans as "the price." There are three prices at all times. Ask, bid, and last. Ask price is the $0.93 that the grocery store puts on the can of beans. They are asking you to pay $0.93. Bid is the slightly lower number you have in your head as you walk buy and decide not to buy it. So long as the ask and bid are different, nothing happens. Last is the price of the last transaction. Whenever those two numbers are the same, a sale takes place and a "last" price is created and documented on the stock chart. The only number that is plotted on the graph is the "last" price. But it is not necessarily the "next" price. The next price is based on the next person's willingness and ability to buy a number of shares at or near that price. If that person is not you, it is because your bid is not the same as the ask and no transaction takes place. You are just staring at the can of beans and keep saying "no, not yet." So the question you are really asking is not what moves the stock price, so much as why each subsequent transaction takes place at a higher number than the ones preceding it? The answer is the availability of more money. Yes, a company's success makes stock prices move up, yes earnings potential helps as well. But under the surface, it is what those things accomplish that makes the stock move. Earnings potential, price movement, company success, higher dividends, etc. all attract people's interest in buying/owning the stock. And it is influx of new money into the pot that makes the stock price move higher. For example... If there is a market made up of 10 people and they each have only a dollar, how much can I sell my watermelon for? Suppose demand for watermelons is really high and supply is really low. Conventional wisdom says the sky is the limit on price, right? But can I sell it for $20? Nope. No one has more than a dollar. So I either keep it, or I sell it for a dollar (or less). But if new money comes into the picture and a guy with $5 wants the watermelon, he can buy it for more than $1 and the sale price, or the "last" price, is recorded at a higher number. Successful stocks move up in the long term because their success, dividends, popularity, buzz, and sometimes just hype attract more money. Plain and simple. Stocks that move up have a consistent influx of new interest and new money while maintaining the interest of former money that has already been put in the pot. Hope that answers your question