Bottoming. Not necessarily "the" bottom. If price drops out of this range, the downtrend will resume.
As we have shifted from fundamental factors to technicals, I think it's also pertinent to decide which fundamental camp you reside in,and how technicals may enhance ones trading. There is a world of a difference in taking a Graham and Dodd approach vs Oneil, and if you are going to look at fundamentals, your first order of business is to decide which methodology works for you. From there,You may choose to incorporate money management,position sizing,scaling in/pyramid in and charting Warren Buffet has two rules. 1) Don't lose money 2) Don't forget rule number 1 IF nothing else, charting can be of great assistance in that regard
O'N might be called the poor man's G&D. All O'N cares about is earnings on the fundamental side. And he may have a point, particularly today when there is so much "creative accounting". Granted earnings are manipulated just as much today as any other aspect of fundamentals (the beating estimates by a penny game). However, it's better than nothing.
Oneil sets no bounds on P/E multiples and favors growth and relative strength .Pure Graham and Dodd is very formulaic with boundaries set by book value and P/E as well as NCAV. One buys high,one buys low.one believes strength begets strength the other believes in the irrationally of man and extremes.I would Never trade Oneil style without charts, I could do so (but dont with GD.
Remember, though, that HTMMIS was written 30yrs ago. G&D was written after the '29 crash, so adjustments have to be made. The "buy high" thing worked just fine in the 80s and 90s, not so much thereafter (like hardly at all). G&D made much more sense after the first bubble ended. At the beginning of a bubble, tho, G&D tends to keep one out. Not only did a great many people miss the internet bubble, they also missed the housing bubble and whatever bubble we're in now.
I agree it could tank from technical view. So the reason behind this move from 100$~ was a lot of supply right?(That's what Rueters says) Well, they stopped talking about that I think. So maybe we go up? People saying gas is too low, it always goes up, blah blah blah. They are used to it being so high for such a long time that they think it will go back to that price because thats where it 'should' be. Human stupidity? Anyway, So I wanna see who is right: Crowd saying its too low and should go up & also big speculators in COT report are long. If we do go lower, the thing I don't get is if everyone is bullish, why is it going lower? If everyone is bullish, shouldn't market be going up? That would mean something else is in control. Supply/demand? So crowd crontrols stocks but supply/demand controls commodities? Lets see what happens.
If by "supply" you mean the supply of oil, yes, for the most part. As for the talk, ignore it. What matters is price since it is the doers not the talkers who move it, i.e., who put their money where their mouths are. Reason has nothing to do with it. When oil reaches a price where big money thinks it's a buy, they'll buy.
Yeah I meant supply of oil. Do you or anyone know when big money thinks its a buy? (Well I guess chart will show it huh?)
That's right. Retail traders sitting at their kitchen tables aren't going to move oil. Or gold. Just watch price and follow the big money in its wake.