can you use the full word not BM please? what would you think a few large financial institutions can't control a market? you have buy back programs so less float . you have banks who are major financial institutions voting some members to the fed board. they have the best idea of what is going on in the markets because they know the fed much better than we do. its not about being on the same page but they all know they own a ton of stock at low prices and if one was to dump everything others follow and who will buy everybody's stock? its about selling everything slowly and they need the public buying to do that. i logically see it that way but i could be totally wrong and this could be the start of a major bull market.
It doesn;t surprise me how off topic the majority of contributors to this thread have gotten because this is Elite Trader after all... DB thanks for the quote To anyone who wants to contribute to a conversation of critical thought Here is an example of what i was thinking Say Bond prices fall, Rates Rise - Foreign investors buy Bonds because of the higher yeild which in turn brings up the value of the Dollar (Bond prices fell - What caused this to happen? - the value of the dollar rose because investment became attractive) This is my line of thinking and this is what i was attempting to accomplish - a discussion in regards to scenarios and what makes prices rise and fall in asset classes For the record No one person or group makes a market rise The reason the market continues to rally is because rates are low - so this equity rally is essentially a carry trade There isn;t a puppet master controlling the crowd So please refrain from posting nonsense
It's really simple and basic. Price can't move until a buy or sell transaction takes place. Nobody's opinion makes the market move until they lay their money down. Until the bid/ask spread is crossed, price can't move. So what motivates people to lay their money on the table is every reason under the sun. All you can be sure of is that prices will move. Nobody can predict the direction of movement with anything greater than about 50% precision unless you have some knowledge of order flow. That is why being a specialist at the NYSE was such a great gig and possibly HFT trading today, and also why insider trading is so prevalent.
Thing is i'm not talking about this from the perspective of an intraday trader I'm taking about this from the perspective of relative value of assets over a week to month time frame
I don't think anyone can answer your question the way it's been posed. It's just really very "big picture".
I understand what you're saying but I'm not sure ET is the place to ask since it appears to be so geared toward daytrading. One of my cohorts, for example, has been trying to maintain two EOD threads, and though it gets a lot of views, participation is close to zip. I have noticed since the Fed decided to involve itself in stock market behavior that the old Stovall Economic Cycle business no longer appears to be of much value. Nor are traditional perceptions of small-, mid-, and large-cap behaviors. And fundamentals don't seem to have mattered much since '98. All of which are reasons why I'm glad I switched to futures. If you're really interested in this stuff, take a look at The Motley Fool. They tend to be anal and more than a little self-satisfied (which they have no right to be after 2000), but they eat this stuff for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
Nah, I don't think there's anything wrong with your wording. It's just a very big and deep subject, is all I'm saying.