Essentially your first statement is correct in a fast market like ES. In a slower market you may be able to execute on the same tic as your signal but slow markets hold no interest to me and so I cannot comment. Your second statement follows your first, which is the essence of straight line thinking, but you may chose to re-think "educated guesses" Essentially by using the latest pattern of say ES and laying a limit stop, you are saying that if price triggers this stop, then I am prepared to risk "n" in order to reap "y+" I would describe this action as a calculated risk and when repeated successfully it becomes the very essence of day trading. regards f9
ROFLMAO. Absolutely loved it. 1a2b3cppp obviously has trouble differentiating Jell-O from KY-Jelly. His/her line of thinking is that since both sound similar and appear to have somewhat similar physical properties they must have been intended for the same orifice. Or, as the good doctor said: When you show the odd flash of contextual intelligence, I forget your generation can't read, Clarice.
At last, someone who understands the dilemma into which I have been cruelly placed. Here I am clinging to the belief that everything beyond a brief moment in time is lag and then along comes a messiah danging a lag free gismo under my noise. To add insult to injury somebody on another thread is requesting futures traders to publish their P &L. regards f9
Oh, well. As a whole, the ET closely resembles a statistical snapshot of Caucasian North American/ Western European male college graduates. And as such, doesn't even deserve the word "simplistic". "Puerile" however comes to mind as most appropriate.
The thing that I find fascinating is this insane belief that in order to accept someone's opinion they must first publish their P&L ... especially of the ES. Meaning no disrespect to anyone, but people are quick to point out the problems associated with trading ES. But of course, because if they understood the strength side of trading ES they would let it out in little dribbles or simply not mention it at all. Either way, nobody other than another Trader would fully appreciate what they are saying It is the confused logic or complete lack there of, that never ceases to amaze me here at ET. People are desperately picking holes with the food before they can even find their way to the table. regards f9
Now, I know that Random Walk is taught in schools to-day, so most would subscribe to it. I think there is some merit in knowing the markets can basically do whatever. Personally, what makes me money is Elliott Wave and Gann, but mostly Elliott Wave. There are 11 different scenairos, but I find it invaluable. And, ofcourse, there are TA things like wedges, head and shoulders, support and resistance.
Good for you, we are all thrilled. If you have something that works then call it your style and go with it. regards f9
I apologize in advance as I went straight to the end of this thread without reading it, so I will prolly repeat much. ALL "indicators" are lagging by definition as they are derived from price. Volume can be an exception if you call it an indicator. And of course forecasting models such as cycles and anything from Bob Prechtor. On an economy wide basis, GDP is prolly the most lagging and inaccurate "indicator" there is. Virtually no economists working outside the government give it any credibility whatsoever. For recession analysis, nothing is really without faults, but unemployment, bankruptcies, and revenues are the ones to look at. Yes, they lag also. Do not listen to the 80%+ of economists who work for Wall St, banks, or the US Government as its their job to always be more optimistic than reality dictates (these are the ones most quoted). Look to academia, or private consultants. Roubini is a good example. No conflicts of interest. For real time day trading, if you do not wish to deal with lagging indicators, just use price action at supp/resis. I personally use previous highs and lows, trend lines, FIB retracements (especially with T bond futures), pivots (only with ES, and only 2nd and 3rd deviation), and volume on a 1 minute and 5 minute chart. Seems to work well. When in new territory such as new lows (or highs as with bonds now), I use measurements from the most recent wave or move (I measure the previous distance of the last move from high to low). This can be amazingly accurate when you have nothing else to use.
Don't worry. This is just a bunch of people shooting the breeze on thanks giving day. Who knows, some part of all this may provide value in some way to people. ... I sincerely hope that it does. regards f9
Precisely the type of fallacious thinking that an average member of the middle class species has been conditioned to exhibit. Confusing credentials with credibility. The rich somehow managed to assure the generational continuation due to social connections and introductions as an ultimate litmus test. As for the rest of us the nature demands evolving into higher order thinking individuals to assure the survival of the natural selection process. Most of the ET'ers are headed straight for the slaughter farms, aka 'corporate world'.