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# What kind of statistic tool is helpful?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by mrfong8, Aug 26, 2005.

1. ### mrfong8

We all know statistics is a helpful subject for trading, what i hear about mostly are standard deviation and theory of probability.

What other tools can non-mathmatical trader use at their disposal to make their trading more precise and scientific?

2. ### mrfong8

what ? nobody wants to answer?

is this quesiton too stupid for elite trader?

3. ### Thunderdog

I don't think that trading the markets lends itself to scientific precision, with or without statistics. Fortunately, there appears to be a sufficient number of people who disagree.

7. ### kut2k2

Statistics is designed for studying static phenomena: stuff that doesn't change over time. Financial data is dynamic: it changes every day, every minute, every time-frame.

Now you know why every statistician isn't obscenely wealthy from applying his or her vast knowledge of statistics, both basic and ultra-esoteric, to the financial markets.

Some traders may use stats in trading strategy but most of those apps are humorous at best. Bollinger bands are the clown cars of TA.

8. ### steve46

How amazing:

When the ignorance gets to be just too amusing, I figure I will step in and say something.

Statistical tools come in all varieties. The best thing you can do for your career, is to obtain a good education in statistics.

There are two broad classes of statistical tools that you should know, and learn to use. Parametric statistics are used to analyze data arranged in discrete intervals or ratios. These tools are used to describe parameters such as "mean" and "standard deviation".

Non-parametric statistics are used wherever data has flexible parameters, and no inference can be made about the distribution of the result. One example is the "Chi-Square" Test. Other non-parametric tools include:

Spearman's rank correllation
Binomial test
Mann-Whitney
Median Test

To the extent that you learn to appreciate and use these tools, you will have an advantage over your competitors. I always suggest that traders who are serious at least take the first year of statistics at your local Community College.

Good luck
Steve

9. ### steve46

You know:

I was just thinking for a second of what it is that you want.

I realize that I used some technical terms that may obscure the message I want to give you.

Basic statistics can help you to look at how the market works in a general way.

Parametric statistics can help you to see patterns in the movement that you may not see with the naked eye.

I realize that these are simplifications and in the process i am distorting things a little bit.

The bottom line, is that using statistics of all kinds, I can find opportunities that make me money. If I can do that, then so can you. Start at the beginning, read some books, take some classes, ask questions and learn to think for yourself.

I am sure you will get where you are going.

Good luck,
Steve

10. ### kut2k2

How amazing:

When the bullshit gets to be just too amusing, I figure I will step in and say something:

the lack of a single practical stat app to trading strategy in the previous post speaks for itself.

Note: statistics is invaluable in analyzing strategy performance; what else is there? But in actual strategy itself?

Few things are more amusing than hearing some "guru" pontificate on "reversion to the mean" for a nonstationary time series.

#10     Sep 1, 2005
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