Hey Humpy, I absolutely agree that there is no system that works all the time, or anytime to be frank. I think that you can only take so many measures when protecting yourself from Black Swans, if any at all! I'm curious to know if you have you used any software or service that does not involve technical analysis indicators?
Everything filters into immediate price action, that's why you use a vol filter to determine what 'force' that specific news has. So even on rumors you can make money. There are assumptions that Ren Tec started doing this 15 years ago. Using machine learning, they give price more dimensions than the standard 5 we use.
Yes, you definitely can make money off rumors. Do you think Ren Tec use this methodology for short term positions, or long term? Also, im not quite sure if they incorporate news into their algorithms. Don't you think it would be interesting to have a tool which would allow you to do something similar to Ren Tec?
Thanks Robert! Im trying to filter out some of the older methods, like technical analysis, and start exploring other options of digesting and understanding the data.
It's all assumptions about what they are actually doing. They have tight ship and information about what they do is scarce. It's mostly from interviews given to the media intimating certain things. I would imagine this: 24/7 Server: derivative : USD/JPY : tick : vol filter: ATR/STD: Newswires : Event : Market Make : Size : Trend Filter : EMA crossovers : Market Make : Exit If you have ability to code above than do it.. you will see it works.
Notice the spike happened after we started talking about the method, it coincided with 'border tax' news on wires.
Of the 100s there seems to be all sorts of indicators buying and selling. It is quite disappointing that none work. However I expect the big money boys have bought up any that do. Only a matter of time though and whammmmo....... I'm in. I have designed 3 systems so far mainly based on standard indicators but alas poor results so far. I have yet to optimise the 3rd. I employed a 3rd party to code them up. No Martingale etc. as too risky and expensive.
If someone could take the software developed by PAL and make it multi-threaded could be a hit. It's now integral part of my trading but running different instances on different cores/PCs is not ideal way of doing things from me. The developer is probably satisfied and not planning any changes. Then I could use command line execution and an API to IB for set number of stocks that satisfy scan settings. I'm sure others would pay top dollar for these features. Alternatively any software like PAL that can scan 1000s of stocks and suggest a long and a short portfolio would be of high value and interest. Not simple TA but something like machine learning or deep neural networks.
I wonder how they manage to train a deep network using single CPU cores and no GPU... without taking months to finish the process.