What kind of returns are possible?

I misunderstood what you were trying to say.

 

Cutten, would you reveal what's the point of this, or you'd rather wait for some more opinions I really miss to see the point of this question, unless you are setting up your pension plan or something Or is it just a theoretical question...

 

So very true Cutten.

As my account size has increased, I have deliberately reduced the amount of risk I take.

Although it's quite obvious, most people forget that it's much harder to make $100,000 profit when starting with $25,000, than it is to make that some profit when starting with $2.5 million.

(Assuming inflation below 10%), If I had $1 billion, I probably wouldn't be too concerned about making 100% per year for the next 10 years, in order to reach $1 trillion. A return of 1% (government bonds and/or government insured bank accounts anyone?) would provide an income of $10 million.

 

Technically, this is untrue. All of the funds still in the account are compounding as before. The original account value needs to be adjusted downward in the manner of a Present Value/Future Value calculation to reflect the periodic disposition of funds.

 

To find out what people's return expectations are.

 

What are our scalability assumptions?

 

Real world i.e. "practical".

 

I see

I really wonder if the people who voted "100%+" know even one investor/speculator who has achieved such spectacular risk adjusted returns. I don't think that there is such person. In fact I don't think that any person has ever achieved to increase his capital 1,000,000 times from speculation or investment for a period of 20 years, regardless of drawdown. I am sure that even in private equity there is no one with such record.

 

This just reminds me of an expected growth in equity I drew up long ago (when still unprofitable!). The expected annual return is dependent on capital under management. Here is something similar to what I drew up. At the end it should be asymptotic to expected natural growth in world asset prices /inflation (which I pinned at 3%)

Code:

Under Management	Expected Return(%)

10,000				912
100,000				458
1,000,000			231
10,000,000			117
100,000,000			60
1,000,000,000			32
10,000,000,000			17
100,000,000,000			10
1,000,000,000,000		7
10,000,000,000,000		5