What kind of returns are possible?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cutten, Dec 9, 2008.

What's the highest practical long-run compound annual return, keeping drawdowns <20%?

  1. 10% - you can't beat stocks

    4 vote(s)
    5.3%
  2. 10-20%

    9 vote(s)
    12.0%
  3. 20-30%

    14 vote(s)
    18.7%
  4. 30-40%

    7 vote(s)
    9.3%
  5. 40-50%

    4 vote(s)
    5.3%
  6. 50-75%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. 75-100%

    1 vote(s)
    1.3%
  8. 100%+

    36 vote(s)
    48.0%
  1. Cutten

    Cutten

    Drawdown measured tick by tick. E.g. if you lost 50% intraday during the 1987 crash then made it all back a few hours later, you still had a 50% drawdown.
     
    #11     Dec 10, 2008
  2. Cutten

    Cutten

    Interesting results, thanks. The best hedge fund managers seem to do a bit better.

    IMO it is hard (at least with larger accounts) to compound at much more than your maximum drawdown e.g. if you keep drawdowns to 20% or less, it is pretty hard to exceed 20% annual compound returns.
     
    #12     Dec 10, 2008
  3. Oh, what a bunch of jokers. Risk 20% probably means you'll make about that much. Trying to make 100% will usually cut you in half. And, I might add, if there were traders out there that do that, we'd have a lot more Warren Buffets. Since we only have one, I can safely assume there's probably only going to be one.
     
    #13     Dec 10, 2008
  4. Probably most of the 100% plus voters are paper traders, so you get what you pay for...
     
    #14     Dec 10, 2008
  5. when you say "compound", does it mean the account used to trade keeps growing or is it kept in 7 figure range?
     
    #15     Dec 10, 2008
  6. Totally depends on the trader of course. I would be very upset if I couldnt do 100% over that period of time.
     
    #16     Dec 10, 2008
  7. it says the returns are annual, so it is clear that it is not total_return/20_years.

    what i don't understand is whether the working capital is presumed to stay the same (~7 figures) or grow with the profits.

    i think cutten meant to keep the account size stable and pocket the profits periodically. but by using "compound" he made this poll confusing (at least to me)
     
    #17     Dec 10, 2008
  8. Cutten

    Cutten

    Keeps going. Otherwise, it's not compound returns.

    Oh, and I am asking for a *maximum*, not the average. I.e. I am talking about what is realistically possible as a best performance.

    Put simply, what would be the trader equivalent of Ty Cobb's batting average.
     
    #18     Dec 12, 2008
  9. Cutten

    Cutten

    Yeah, for maximum clarity I should have said "annualized" not annual. I just thought it was obvious what it meant, since annualized compound return is the way all long-term performance is measured.

    So I am talking about someone making say 30% and growing 1 mill to 190 mill over 20 years by compounding the return each year.
     
    #19     Dec 12, 2008
  10. Cutten

    Cutten

    So you would be very upset if you couldn't turn 1 million into 1 trillion in 20 years?
     
    #20     Dec 12, 2008