Discussion in 'Trading' started by OxonianTrader, Sep 18, 2003.
Depends what you are trading-look at the S&P Mid Cap- its only a few points shy of its ALL TIME high. I would definitely classify that as a Bull Market. Everything else, not really sure if you can call them rallies in a Secular Bear Market or a new Bull Market-need more evidence. What I wonder about is why is gold doing so well, doesn't gold usually go down in bull markets?
everybody is in agreement that the market is going to 1100. The problem is half of them think it must first go down.
The sudden appearance of experts like the starter of this thread is further proof of that assertion.
Ah, I see. A trick question. I say "Stock Market"! What do I win?...
Its been a bull market since October last year. Was there an economic recession before this? Technically and statistically, sure, mild at worst, but unnoticeable in ordinary life with spending apace, a continuous housing boom and, well, just plenty of the 'feel good' factor'.
So bears and doomsters go back into your cupboard where you belong!
Man at this point I dont care whether it is bull or bear just give me more and more volume.
It's a dead market so far.
I still believe this is a bull market inside a long term, secular bear market.
We haven't had anywhere near the pain and suffering needed to eliminate the excess of the late 1990's. We had the biggest bull market in history, and we escape it with the Wall Street establishment and mutual funds unscathed. No way. That isn't how a savage bear market ends. It will end when:
No one wants to go to work on Wall Street.
Major Mutual funds go bust.
Stock levels relative to household financial assets falls back into its long term average (mondays wall street journal chronicled this).
AMZN is a $50 stock!! And they still aren't making any money.
Mutual Funds experience net redemptions for at least a few years.
Prices get unreasonably low. A p/e of 30 on the S&P doesn't qualify.
5-10 years from now, the DOW will still be between 7500-9500 if not lower.
Someday we'll look back fondly at the notion of "Nightly Business Reports". We'll marvel that there were three major financial cable networks. And this ET will be as distant a memory as Spielberg's ET.
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