You better be ready for some really ugly drawdowns, too. Because these WILL happen with this kind of system...no way around it. gs
I don't know what you are doing wrong? I seem to have really good results with this especially on a daily basis. I do nothing but crosses. Nothing subtle, just ignore them until 3:30 and decide if they have one more day to go. However there is some subtle judgement going on inside me for day trading. Like judging angles, time of day, market news, speed of ticks, hesitations, candlestick reversals, jumping into longer time frames from shorter ones. Watching the tape for sudden spurts in prices is Bob's job. My biggest problem is jumping out too quickly. I am trying to remedy that by using a 13 min chart after the 1 minute trigger goes off. But with 1-2 point gains each time, you can make a living at it, but it is more work than it has to be. I never have "ugly" drawdowns. My husband and I combine our two pea brains and we seem to do just fine. He has the balls, and I have the charting skills.
I'm taking comments seriously so as they accumulate I will be taking time to reply periodically. And thank you for providing them. bungrider, et al: I believe papertrading (and/or backtesting) the method first to be the only prudent way of operating. These days with real-time simulators available there's no excuse not to papertrade first. Some good arguments that I fully agree with here: http://www.advancedfutures.com/cbot/6.asp Kavman: Nope, capitulation is not an option. lundy, et al: I did lose real $. 3 years ago I lost 60% of my small stake in stocks when I completely had no idea. Recently, I started with e-minis and was getting losses that were not in line with what my method was supposed to produce, so I stopped (-$500). Aaron: You seem to have since removed your second post but I remember what it said so I'll respond. First of all you're my role model, first it was Soros, then Paul Tudor Jones and lately it's been you. Now when you implied that I wanna trade for excitement, that kind of hurt me. It's true that money is not #1 reason. I wouldn't go thru all this trouble just for money. I really like this occupation and I wanna be a pro, I don't wanna do anything else. Just like some people really wanna become doctors or whatever, but it's really hard and takes lots of time and effort.
Yeah, I removed that post where I suggested you think about your motivation for trading because it was pompous and written in a sour mood. I am not qualified to give psychological advice. Sorry about that. I think I ought to print out your post and put it on my wall to cheer me up on a lousy day during the next big drawdown. I've never been mentioned in the same sentence with Soros and Paul Tudor Jones before, unless it was begun "Who do you think you are? You're no..." Here's a toast to a profitable 2003! Merry Christmas and a happy new year.
Famous last words... Crossover systems can work well for months or even years, then hit periods when they produce losses just as dependably as they formerly produced wins. If the drawdown hits at the time that, with your recently improved confidence, you've increased position size, then they can erase your profits much more quickly than they built them up. Crossoverers then typically try one or more counterstrategies: They switch or diversify markets, they seek one or more "filters," or they begin to introduce greater and greater elements of discretion. As a result, they will increasingly tend to lose simplicity, reduce profits during good periods, expose themselves to "foolishness," and be left biding their time until the day that non-correlated markets suddenly and devastatingly get correlated...
So great sage, what strategy do you use? I really get tired of people who say my strategy does not work and offer no advice of their own. Guess you all just like to be negative. For something that does not work, it makes me a shitload of money.
1) I never pretended to be a "great sage." 2) As for my own strategy, at this point I day-trade exclusively, e-minis and Nasdaq stocks. In short, I trade off price patterns and use tape-reading and market breadth. If you want more detail, I kept a journal for a while - including a basic explanation of my approach, as well as a rather over-the-top confessional about my prior history as a trader. The main "action" consisted of gifs of my best trades, worst trades, and some other trades, with attendant commentary and reflection, but I've suspended it for the time being, as I was receiving zero feedback of any kind. If you're curious, you can find the journal at: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=10263&perpage=6&pagenumber=18
I don't think I really use "so many different methods": At any given point of the trading day, I am rarely looking for more than a couple different set-ups, usually only one. That different patterns have different names may make it look like there are more of them or a greater number of factors or concepts working than there are: For example, a "BO" (breakout) is very close to the opposite of a "BD" (breakdown), and I'm virtually never looking for either if it's the first half hour if I'm trading a gap set-up. I could go on, but, really, if you have specific questions or observations, it would probably be more appropriate to place them in my journal thread than here. I'll be happy to respond in whatever detail there. Sorry if my original comment seemed one-sided to you, but you really did invite that kind of response with your "fooproof" way to make money line. One reason I directed you to my journal was precisely to demonstrate that I do not restrict myself to negative criticism.
Ok, I give in. The method IS fool proof even for a fool like me. There are a thousand ways to make and loose money in the market. No one is right and no one is wrong. The thread was started by a trader who was drowning. I was trying to send him a life preserver so that he would get back in the boat. And help others in the same situation....... Guess I should just quit trying and let people drown?