And I used to live within walking distance to the beach in OC, but now a few miles away. I miss the beach too, seems there is something about the sea/ocean that attracts people, so I do understand your feeling. Take care.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We at least get to see water everyday out of all the windows facing the lake. Attached is a picture of our master bedroom window when we wake up in the morning and the cat is sitting in it.
userque and Simples, Here is a first cut: Ran a Monte Carlo using Excel circular, calculated outcome vs Kelly, fraction Kelly, etc. I used win rate of 50:50, 0.6 if win and 0.5 if lose. Trade once a day, simulate 200 trading days. This is equivalent to a bracket entry with a 0.6 win and 0.5 lose exit and 50;50 the stock is going up:down. Overall it will produce a positive expectancy with infinite capital and infinite number of trades. I could see that the risk of ruin was 100% with all in trades, quite likely with Kelly but much lower with 1/2 Kelly. With 1/10 Kelly, within a reasonable # of runs, risk of ruin was near zero. I know it is obvious to you folks but having simulated with Monte Carlo gave me a comfort level that a theoretical calculation could not provide. So, I will trade with <1/4 Kelly size from now on. Regards,
Appreciate the update. Nice that you figured out how to make it work! There are few things more soothing than a proper simulation.