What is your panty dropping bet to score HUGE when inflation comes?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Saltynuts, Feb 13, 2021.

  1. zdreg

    zdreg

    You call that "unconventional wisdom.":D
     
    #21     Feb 14, 2021
  2. Richest man in the world has already answered this question. If you don't like bitcoin..just rename the thread to bitcoin inflation hedge alternatives
     
    #22     Feb 14, 2021
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  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    This is why, unless the uses for gold increase and there is going to be a genuine shortage of gold to satisfy industrial demand, some, like myself, have never been attracted to gold as a long term investment -- I can understand the lure it manifests for traders where one tries to take advantage of human irrationality. But as a long term investment, unless one just gets lucky, the data shows gold more or less keeps you even with inflation. For inflation protection I have a preference for dividend paying equities. Particularly if you can buy after a steep market correction, roughly every twenty years or so. (Markets are nearly always wrong, and major corrections are in part recognition of that. :D) Real Estate bought right in the right place can offer good protection against inflation plus the chance for real gain. However caveat emptor. Owning investment real estate can require attention something like that required by acquiring a new puppy or a baby.
     
    #23     Feb 14, 2021
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  4. lol, maybe i've outgrown my handle
     
    #24     Feb 14, 2021
  5. treeman

    treeman

    Subaru::lesbians
    Tesla::hodl’s

    it’s good branding towards a target consumer who already over indexes on wanting a Tesla.
    But yes, BTC>80k wouldn’t surprise me at all.
     
    #25     Feb 14, 2021
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  6. otctrade

    otctrade

    Didn't Tesla sell 5b worth of stock recently? So technically they bought the bitcoin for free with wsb yoloers money
     
    #26     Feb 14, 2021
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  7. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Talked to a buddy of mine the other day, pretty decent sized developer of residential and some light commercial; he told me prices are off the charts across the board. Land, material, labor, permitting, fuel. Everything. Smart cat this one, he's a good friend and I respect how valuable his time is so I never pick his brain as much as I'd like to, but he knows what's going on. IMO, probably better than the 'experts' at the St. Louis Fed.


    Now I'm about a million miles from being considered well versed on anything macro-economic, so maybe I'm wrong here, but I like to think I have walking around sense.

    A picture says a 1000 words, and maybe this one applies too broad of a brush-stroke, and maybe I am missing something in regards to the ivory-tower definition of inflation, but I always thought inflation is when prices go up.

    upload_2021-2-14_14-4-6.jpeg

    You don't need a weather-man to know which way the wind is blowing.

    How to play it?

    Bet against the companies with the weakest balance sheets and the greatest debt that are captive to consumer spending, commodity prices, and other legacy costs.

    Ford comes to mind. Huge amounts of debt. If it gets anywhere near $13, or even a little over $12, I think its a good short. I loved it at $5. But it's heading back to $9 soon enough. At a minimum. From a safety standpoint, I don't think you'll ever see a short squeeze on Ford. Its too big and too liquid. If you own it, I'd get out pretty soon.

    AT&T too. It's a dog and they are saddled with debt. I don't follow that one however, not sure what they've said about their dividend. There's a reason it's that high though.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2021
    #27     Feb 14, 2021
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  8. I bet on a liquidity crisis coming first, an asset price deflation thereafter and then maybe inflation
     
    #28     Feb 14, 2021
  9. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    The commodity super-cycle stadium gates are open!

    And please remember... inflation can be created through demand or/and shortage.

    grains.jpg
     
    #29     Feb 14, 2021
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  10. treeman

    treeman

    Vanzandt- I like your post, but I find your conclusion spurious. Your premise of inflation is in the numbers - just look at them- yup. But then you look for companies to short!?! Sure, you may be right on them, but that’s swimming a bit upstream, no? I get we all trade and view the world differently, but why wouldn’t you just go for the companies with hurricane force gusts at its back? Prices for everything everywhere are going up. See all stock indexes. Ford may be so ripe for the plucking, but can’t they also just raise prices in an inflationary world? Fading inflation seems really risky to me. Relative plays? That makes sense to me.

    This is also why I don't place an macro econ bet. It all makes sense after things have played out, but before hand, no one knows what the hell they are doing. The mico-econ lego pieces that makes sense to everyone, combines to something more complex than quantum mechanics. Anyone who tells you what exactly is going to happen in macro, has a very healthy ego, and has been wrong on their macro calls in the past. I try to steer away from that.

    I know what it all looks like right now. It all has to play out though. And
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2021
    #30     Feb 14, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.