So you state that, say 100 tick move, which occurred within time horizon of one hour has less meaning than 100 tick move occurred over the course of one or more days?
Wrong again Walter Mitty. I was on holiday at the time, so although I was on the side lines as you put it, your comprehensions skills leave a lot to be desired. May I respectfully suggest you don your foil hat and go back into the corner? Your antagonistic stance has no affect on me as I know you are a fake. You do not display the personality traits of a successful individual. That fact is as clear as day to some of us.
Yes , because there are a load of false moves ,retraces,breakdowns and kurtosis.If these theories worked , simply bet the house at $1,000 per tick , hopefully the 95 % club awaits. You would be trading in the future , ahead of that move trying to figure the one big move out of 500 moves daily. What is the probability of you picking that one out of 500 daily moves with a small stop?
What if some sequence of trades occurred within say 3 hours and almost exactly the same sequence of trades (by the number of trades, volume and amplitude of price swings) occurred over the course of 3 days, would it still make the 1st case "noise" and the second case "real"?
Interesting that there is no reply from this 'Donna' aka NoDoji. Ok, maybe she is away somewhere - but all that happens is the man in the foil hat comes to her aid to hurl insults and baseless accusations around! What a pair of clowns! Foil Hat: I'm actually going to address one of your points in your childish and amateurish tirade: Successful people have no need to post how much they make. It's really quite irrelevant, apart of course from being quite vulgar in polite society (which ET clearly isn't). But you wouldnt know that. I imagine you were educated by the government. What do I have to prove to the ET crowd? Not a lot. Do you really think Im as base to post my wealth, tell people what car I drive, where I live, what I do with my money? What restaurants I dine in? I could, but frankly its boring, and proves nothing, benefits no one. Im not here to attract some silly following and become some pathetic internet guru. I live in the real world, not a virtual one like you. What is interesting though is the course of dialogue. All I did was question a statement about the validity of entering at one point against waiting for another. I did not ask anyone about their approach, or how much they make. It's irrelevant, and frankly Im not interested. Why was this brought up then? It was a defence mechanism IMO. Why did that person feel the need to defend themselves? Because they felt threatened by a question they couldnt answer - or saw the error of their ways. The question was asked again. This time there was no answer, but the foil hat was called in to hurl insults and try and belittle me for attacking the gurus. Pathetic! This is why I know you are such a loser. You dont have the backbone to admit you and your silly school doesnt have all the answers. Youre stubborn. We all know what happens to stubborn people in the market. Time to man up foil hat. Look in the mirror and admit your one of lifes big losers, reduced to bigging yourself up in front of a largely anonymous crowd. Only then will you be able to take the first step on the ladder of life. Good luck
It use to have effect when markets were rational , does it have any effect in irrational , uncertain outcome markets?
you seem to trade cycles and fundamentals(eur vs int rates comment),waiting for a cycle to begin or end is the same as waiting for a support or resistance to appear and trade the turn,you could get in in advance and the odds are with you or you could wait to see if it really was support or resistance,the former is alrigt with a large acct and not al right with a small acct,magic patterns, fundamentals,cyles, trendlines,support resistance are all indicators one would be advantageous to know or learn as opposed to selling when it's puking,buying when it's rallying,for the simple reason of knowing where to loosely expect to exit the trade
To me this is a valuable question to address. Let's say we just logged in to do some trading and we identify an uptrend in one's trading time frame: Higher lows, higher highs, such that a 20-period EMA in this time frame is rising. We want to put on a long trade to take some profit out of this trending move and would like to get in at a price level such that a reasonably placed protective stop doesn't subject us to more risk than our money management plan allows. In a nutshell, we want a really "good" price so we can capture as much of the next trending price swing as possible. The nature of the trend (strong, narrow channel or wide channel) and the next key resistance level to be tested (I call this "airspace") determine how I and where I enter. If the trend is strong (pullbacks are very shallow and only show up on a smaller time frame), and there's plenty of airspace to the next key level, I don't worry much about "confirmation". I have two methods of entry and if the anticipatory method doesn't fill (too much strength), then I'll take the confirmed entry any day. So I don't get my "ideal" entry price, but the win rate in this environment is ridiculously high and I have no fear. (To answer the question, "Then why doesn't everyone trade this way and become rich": Entering in a strong trend is one of the most difficult things to do psychologically; all but the most experienced traders will either be afraid to jump in or will be trying to trade counter-trend.) If the trend is moving in a narrow channel, I can get some real precision entries and exits and it can look like magic to an observer. If the trend is moving in a wide channel (back and forth through a slightly rising 20EMA), I often trade both directions, using a smaller time frame to get tighter stops because these sorts of trends can break down rather easily.
Geez! Whats ET coming too? An intelligent post at last!!!! Yea I'd mostly agree. Like the flash crash example, Im simply using these issues to illustrate a point.