Greendog, I was told that people that say they make money dont make shit. Now I have been told that this is very simple to determine. Is this true? comp
in general, yes -- I believe that's a true statement. In this case though, I was responding to a novice trader's posting about the usual "Wall Street Conspiracy" theory, etc, etc. To say that making money as a trader is completely "random" is laughable. It's almost like saying, "how could a company ever succeed in business -- there's just too much competition!" I'll tell you what the "edge" is (I hate that tired old term) ---the "edge" is knowing what the f*** you're doing. You can sit around and whine, or you can grab life by the balls and make something happen
Green dog, Ya got me there and I have to agree. I had that edge and lost it, but ata young age it is easy to recover. Have a good night. comp
Greendog I call myself many things (especially after a really hard day!) but not, I think, a novice trader. I have traded since 1998 and was even going to go the prop route last year and studied for the exam. Backtesting, pairs trading, opening orders, scalping, you name it, I have tried it. Consistency is always the problem with all of these things. I used to have your attitude to life. Full on. I eventually got into a business once that made money so easily that I honestly could not understand why people in the world did really bad things like drug dealing, killing people etc to make a relative pittance when this was perfectly legal. Why wasn't everyone doing it? I won't bore you with the details but like all good things that came to an end and I soon re-learnt how much of a struggle it can be to increase your own equity curve in normal times. And yes, we had competition, but we also had several tangible edges in that business which limited that competition. And on reflection there was a bit of luck involved - being in the right place at the right time. However since then I have found a full throttle attitude has done more damage than good to my equity curve, both in business investments and trading. So naturally I try to slow down and really read between the lines of life. And the way I read trading right now is that the real dumb money is not involved. That may change if the market goes much higher from here, but it probably requires your PDT rule to be abolished. Although there has been an exodus to the eminis I think the majority of people who were "daytraders" in the 90s were too scared of that "futures" word. Ditto the SSFs. Hell, I have met prop traders who would not trade futures in a million years because they were too scarey! So what you have right now is the tough game between players who understand some or all of the manipulation games and the "house" that collects the fees (or have the real execution edges). The conclusion? The high probability play is to stay away until the dumber money comes back en masse. Again this is probably going to require a legislative change. In the meantime I carry on playing that grand roulette wheel in both stocks and futures. So be thankful there is still someone there to provide you with a meal ticket sometimes if you're winning ! But I do know that I am sometimes the guy who can't see the sucker at the table (except in the mirror of course) ! By the way I look at business opportunities almost every day. Just being extremely fussy about what I get involved in is all.
i never really got mad at a bad trade. have i? o, i guess I have after all. i have, however, been outraged at lots of bad fills. the worse thing i did is let it get to me. if my monitors could talk.....
I'm one of those newbie psychotherapists wanna be traders. For what it's worth In my profession I did a lot of anger work both personally and with clients. I found that a thick auto heater rubber hose (made by goodyear) slammed on the floor is a great release of anger. It made a very satisfying thunk and you don't hurt your wrists. Dynamically, It often came up that anger was a way of not experiencing fear. I think you alluded to that in your initial post. The hard part is to identify what it is that you're afraid of. Anyways, I found the whole discussion really stimulating as I have yet to make a profitable trade!!! Fortunately I'm such a newbie that I'm at the stage where rationalization still works. PS: They need to come up with one of those smiley faces with smoke pouring out of it's head! Jorge
...just wanted to say thanks to everyone who spent time on this thread -- it is much appreciated! one thing i've found myself doing is saying "WHY?" after every move...that is the start of my exercise that i was looking for, and hopefully i will firm this up into part of my metholodology... the point isn't to be right, the point is to know "WHY" and go with it... i think part of my problem also is that i am scared to lose and thrilled to win...these markets are hard and maybe it is becoming easier to do that... with time, however, i get better about being annoyed/scared/jubilated and just accept the fact that some days are better than others...