What is the Winning Rate of Pure Mechanical System?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by RedSun, Sep 11, 2009.

  1. stupek


    when we trade with the trend the only reason we don't have a high % record is we are not there yet. Meaning, the "trend" is a shorttime frame chart and the entries are breakouts. That is the gamble. To make money consistently with the trend the trend should be 15 duration and longer. Then the entries must be selling hig in channel and buying low in channel opposite direction. this is not rocket science. For instance today is a "TREND" day. All sells "shorts" taken today ES NQ so far beg the question. W H Y???? The best tool we have is our eyes.
    #21     Sep 14, 2009
  2. stupek


    Starting at 9 cst............2 runs per day normal............trade the turns and pullbacks and u have 3 trades at least......each run ...that is 6 .........trade the scalps and you do have many less accurate trades. Today is a "trend" day" ..Foils the countertrender all day long......the run systems only enter one direction each time even if one tme......or 6.........
    #22     Sep 14, 2009
  3. winning rate is meaningless. It varies wildly, depending on youy profit target, stoploss, or psychological makeup

    Profit Factor or Expectancy is far more useful. (total $ won / total $ lost). Of course, you also need to adjust that for slippage, commissions, spread, fees, risk/errors.
    #23     Sep 15, 2009
  4. I agree it ranges from 0-100%.
    #24     Sep 15, 2009