What is the true unemployment rate?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by brokerboy, Jul 10, 2005.

  1. What is the true unemployment rate? Are the people who lost there jobs 2 years ago still counted? Is a kid who graduated a year ago and has a part time job or no job at all calculated into it? Is employment in America improving or are we just not counting everyone? What about the National Guard people serving overseas? Are the temporary workers for there jobs being calculated into the rate? I don’t see improvement but the numbers say we are so can someone explain it to me.
  2. phoenix3


    Unemployment is defined and calculated by the Labor department. You may want to visit bls.gov or consult a macroeconomics textbook.

    However, this definition of unemployment might be far different than the "true unemployment rate" sought by brokerboy (seeker of economic truth?)!
  3. if you count all the useless government and compulsory private "employees" that are basically on working welfare, it's probably closer to 25%.

    what do you mean, you don't see improvement? open a business and try to staff it. then get back to us.
  4. wizardx


    This article shows how the unemployment rate is misleading and does not reflect the total number unemployed. If you are unemployed by more than 6 months, you are no longer counted. Below is an excerpt.

    "The "official" unemployment rate in the United States is 5.5 percent (July 2004), a contradiction to the actual number of unemployed men and women in the United States which stands at 16,265,736. The United States government only keeps you "unemployed" for six months, whether or not you find a job. The Labor Department (BLS) reports that an additional 300,000 workers fell out of the labor pool (an average monthly share throughout 2003.) Some 6,700,000 professionals have fallen off their unemployment benefits without finding a new job. Employers added no hope, creating only 32,000 jobs in July 2004."

  5. gwb-trading


  6. There are several studies (need to check my library after trading hours) which show US unemployment to be around 9%, which is a bit better than the one of bigger EU nations (like Germany and France which are at 10-12%).

    It makes sense, as the first world economies are not that much different afterall. US has more lax labor laws, which explains the marginal improvement.

    The 5% unemployment numbers fall under the same category as 2.5% inflation, +3.8% real GDP growth etc etc.

    Even "establishment" Media are starting to question those fictional numbers (see Barron's last week, on GDP)
  7. Don't pay too much attention to employment rates or GDP numbers, its the earnings numbers companies that are reporting that tell how well an economy is performing.

    The only major factor to the future of the economy will be the decision to adopt a strict inflation target policy or not. This will take place next year as the new Fed gov. is ushered in.
  8. 10 percent.... at least...
    if you count all the welfare and loafers who are sucking off the parents, siblings etc. more if you count the jails etc.
    the govt stats figure is horseshit.
    always been and always will be......
    oh yeah and all the "disabled" who just can't do that job....