https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...ng-the-us-china-trade-dispute-tariffs-div.pdf Abstract This paper examines the economic implications of the tariff increases by the United States and by China during the Trump era trade dispute and the gains from their potential removal. The increases were dramatic, with the US raising tariffs on industrial products by a factor of six – with particularly large tariff increases on intermediate and capital goods – and China increasing its tariffs on US agricultural products more than five-fold. These changes distort trade and production decisions in both countries and undercut the global trading system. They resulted in substantial economic losses to each country, with import volumes reduced by 4.9% in China and 4.5% in the USA, and bilateral trade patterns were massively distorted. Their cost to the United States rose at the end of 2021, when the import expansion provisions of the Trump era Phase One Agreement expired. Negotiating the abolition of these costly and disruptive tariffs would generate substantial real income gains for both countries and help lower US consumer prices. https://www.joebm.com/vol10/714-RJ0010.pdf Abstract—During the 2016 presidential campaign, a consistent refrain from then-candidate Trump was to point to U.S. trade with China, and the agreements that enabled it, as primary cause of the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs and intellectual property. He said China was responsible for “the greatest theft in the history of the world” and lambasted the U.S. trade deficit with China, which in 2016 stood at around $346 billion. The trade war caused economic pain on both sides and led to diversion of trade flows away from both China and the United States. This paper explores the effects of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the Chinese economy during U.S and China trade war since 2018. Chinese retaliatory tariffs were almost wholly passed through into Chinese domestic prices, so that the entire incidence of the tariffs fell on Chinese consumers and importers, with no impact on the prices received by the U.S. exporters. The cumulative deadweight loss, a reduction in real income from the Chinese tariffs, is approximately $517 million in the whole year of 2018, with an additional cost of $6,321 million to Chinese consumers and importers in the form of tariff revenue transferred to the government. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1465&context=honors https://www.dw.com/en/the-real-winners-of-the-us-china-trade-dispute/a-55420269 "Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh and South Korea are coming out as victors in the US-China trade war."
See, that is already a VERY GOOD side-effect, as it diversifies production capabilities among many different countries. If a US company wants to produce something abroad, it can choose from a huge variety of offers, and is not depending on one country alone. Despite that, it also ensures higher competitiveness of US producers. Not everything can be measured in $ (like the availability of medicine at any time). And other things only show their effect in future. How would that future look like, if 8/10 EV cars would be produced in China? As of today, the financial (econ.) impact couldn't even be measured correctly or foreseen. Who knew in 2008, how far Tesla could come? (What if that would have been a chinese company?) THAT are the uncertainties of a global, neoliberal production chain.
Okay, I just hope the bull market will not weakened because of installing tariffs. I want to see a strong Nasdaq and SP500.
You need to ask yourself: Why is China so keen, to become the nr.1 production hub for everything high-tech & industrial...? Money is not always everything; hard to hear I know, but that is the case. Know-how, prod. facilities, research... that is what everybody wants.
You think that tariffs caused the 2018 correction and not this?: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/fed-hikes-rates-by-a-quarter-point.html
so no it's not obvious to all these stupid fucks... some stupid fuck wants the market to keep going up - but what the stupid fuck doesn't understand is that the market going up is a reflection of the dollars value becoming more and more worthless. it's really hopeless. also these stupid fucks can't think for themselves and do what's best for themselves, they think they are warriors against the machine and they should be. but the causes (scripts) they are all fighting for are provided by the very machines they are against. what ends up happening "cause their stupid fucks" is mom and pop businesses get wiped out and eliminated. little mom and pops businesses get burned down to the ground by the fucktard liberals who can not think for themselves, they cling to every word the news tells them. it is really hopeless https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/412547?v=pdf
A good point! An egoistic, selfish attitude of "go higher while I am invested" is of course a root cause for the shortsighted, greedful state of many people in our nations. Economic power is where know-how & research meets manufaction; trying to seperate both from each other is a recipe for disaster as giving many qualifications & power out of hand. In addition to the rest of the (domestic) economy, that relies on a strong industry. Hopefully we see some reverse shift in near future, with lowering debt, lower inflation & more production. Crazy how they have the guts to actually call it that way.
I agree with mark brown. Only a stupid fuck would consider the market going up as a primary metric of a successful economy.
Unless you understand finacialization and financial repression by central bankers and fiat currency. Then, instead of daydreaming about societal advancements, you just want to be first in line at the disco. Get with the program nwm! You don't need to work... just make friends with J Powell. Duh
The Q4 2018 25% drop especially in December 2018 was principally due to Powell trying to raise rates & blindly implementing QT. Maybe the tariffs had some effect but it was due mainly the rise in rates. The tariffs definitely tanked the steel & industrial stocks, however. 3M & Nucor really tanked.