From The Chair in the corner at Oh the misery Inc, ltd. A Delaware Corp- A subsection of stonedinvesting Thanksgiving 2007. The front page of ET acts as a natural filter and our hopes and aspirations as well as our greed and fear are fairly represented by the thread titles. That is why in the depths of my great depression this morning as I trade in my underwear (separate thread) and try to hang in there picking what I think are valuable companies at certain prices and then watching them decline 10% or more. It is in such an environment like this when the gloom is darkest that we must start thinking about a turn around; we have to step up and act like something good is around the corner and so I do that now. The market feels like it wants to bottom here to me> I would like to see a reversal today and a slight gain and then the usual short covering rally that every one doubts... it will drip and drab until Dec 5 and then confirm (That Is our LT Cycle Turn Day). So as painful as it is to keep looking for stocks we must do so. This is not a thread of China stocks in particular although a few are sure to show up these are the 10 general picks for December as filtered through stoney's magical machine- they are an odd mixed up lot and I am as not as confident as I usually am giving out free advice...But you get what you pay for as they say... so let's get cracking. Lets try and mold some ideas into a portfolio. Into the world of super hot ovens let's pick up MIDD. Let's bottom fish some sports scoreboards at DAKT. Lets pick up EBAY- should be a decent recession stock- worried about stub hub and Broadway though... Lets take a leap of faith with Wellcare WCG, In tech HTCH GEOY (satellite tech) In bio lets go with SIRT for now. In beaten down financials lets go with Etrade ETFC & Western union WU In energy lets wait for a pullback on PBR & SSL, LNG, CLNE but use BQI now. Company Symbol Last trade 1.The Middleby Corporation MIDD 74.76 2.Daktronics, Inc. DAKT 20.77 3.eBay Inc. EBAY 31.85 4.WellCare Health Plans, Inc. WCG 35.91 - 5.Hutchinson Technology Incorporated HTCH 6.34 6.GeoEye Inc. GEOY 33.18 7.Sirtris Pharmaceuticals Inc. SIRT 16.60 8.E TRADE Financial Corporation ETFC 4.15 9.The Western Union Company WU 21.37 10.Oilsands Quest Inc. BQI 5.22 * * * Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) PBR 99.94 Sasol Limited (ADR) SSL 52.24 Clean Energy Fuels Corp. CLNE 15.79 Then on standby for research J Crew &Morgans Hotel & a slew of Chinese stuff- Take your weed whackers to these names find a couple you like and get back in the game. Remember the Bears have Thanksgiving & The Bulls Have Christmas... so once again Happy Thanksgiving but MORE IMPORTANTLY - Merry X Mas and Happy Chanukah and all good things that happen when snow is on the ground! ~ stoney
Alright folks what a depressing close. I want to just lose it. I'm getting the calls now asking "should I just sell everything." We are close. We are close. i hope. I'm at the point where I'm having trouble painting a picture of staying in the market.... perversely just when you want to end it, the market will dangle greed again.... Lets check our 10 possibilities for RS- Time Trade Change % Chg Volume Intraday Related Info MIDD 3:35PM ET 75.50 -0.01 0.01% DAKT 3:37PM ET 20.67 -0.68 3.19% EBAY 3:37PM ET 31.84 -0.43 1.33% WCG 3:31PM ET 37.14 -0.34 0.91% HTCH 3:36PM ET 26.01 -0.42 1.59% GEOY 3:35PM ET 32.89 -0.06 0.18% SIRT 3:33PM ET 16.63 -0.27 1.60% ETFC 3:37PM ET 4.21 +0.41 10.79% WU 3:31PM ET 21.26 -0.27 1.25% BQI 3:32PM ET 4.95 -0.27 5.17% >> Ok what stands out? MIDD for one has been a monster through each and every plunge here rebuilding it's LT powerful chart this will be in the final mix I can tell. Ebay is calling me. I like it. I like the trade today. Wellcare this was off well over a buck this morning and look where it closed!- this as the market dove... that's a big tel... so far it's MIDD, EBAY & WCG....SIRT down 27 cents, GEOY off only 6 cents you see why stoney does this? These will be the leaders when we emerge... Western Union down 27 cents,( I'd like to insert Wachovia here perhaps as well- good insider buying)... Etrade jumped a lot Bqi went down a lot let's dump BQI & Daktronics for now... HTCH I'm on the fence with so we have a strong SEVEN and we need to due our DD tonight & Friday on Morgans, JCrew URBN, ANF, Wachovia & some Chinese names..... To Be Continued..... ~stoney
The filtering process continues unabated here at SI, the days grow tougher with each Eli Manning pass and each minute my dear Rhodesian Ridgeback is in the Animal Hospital; it's raining here in NTY and I'm out of dope. Things could not be more glum- on to Mr. Market. Well Dec 5th can't come fast enough! The stocks above suck I don't like them but we must continue the process so here are our four Chinese plays> CFSG, CDS, HMIN, CSIQ. I like each for different reasons CFSG provides fire safety to big China industry (steel mills and such) the contracts are huge and the area of fire protection is under new Gov mandate to come up to something close to code. CDS is a real nice relative strength story within the Chinese group. Their greatest asset appears to be a magnesium mine but the stock has followers and very strong numbers. HMIN is a hotel low budget play they are building them out like crazy in China and should have very good Olympic timeperiod earnings... there is new competition in this field from heavy hitters from US brokerages I think it was Goldman... so little weary here but great trading stock. CSIQ is an utter F up from the stoned investing dept... a favorite chart of mine forever I got panicked out a long time ago... as much as it hurts to admit this- it has further to run propelled by the hopes and dreams of solar energy... This stock's rally will be short lived if oil ever goes down... Of the other stocks a whole lot of nothing... I'm adding CABLEVISION @ $26.60 Yes things are THAT bad and reinserting DAKT $21.77 I've been accumulating in the high $20's - $20.70 area.... In biotech let's add Millennium MLNM breaking out to a 3 year high.... More To Come. Come Home And Sleep With Me Clyde!!! ~stoney
Nice Bottom Today- based on exterior forces Abdu Dabe Dabe $, advance decline line on Nasdaq sucked. Decline way to narrow... still this is what we predicted, it will broaden out. Remember how close we are to Dec 5th our longer-term cycle turn point, a low, since the October 12th turn,was a high. The next Longer-term cycle turning dates are: Thursday December 13 (H), Friday December 21 (The Bottom), and Monday December 31 (H). Mark these dates for important market turns.... Shippers had a huge day, we may have to jump on them soon, MLNM is getting all kinds of good pub this one is definite. China turned. Here we go. ACH up $3 today I like CHDX best ($COST what up no love?) BPHX has to be watched and maybe bought tomorrow. Have we not had two 10% corrections now in 4 months? What does that mean? Normally up up and away but normally we would be embarking on a new economic cycle not coming out of one.... They say volatility comes at bottoms and highs and this is where the smart guys have it wrong I hope-- This could be a bottom, In Aug we stopped RIGHT at the 10% line and it felt a little fake... but we V bottomed now we magically do the exact same thing but everyone is saying no v bottom possible this time... They might be right things seem pretty bad and it's because it is true when America stubs her toe these other markets DO feel it and WILL feel it, the great lie to investors was that your money would be safer overseas.. have they been punished enough probably not.. but in China Yes. Brazil will take a month longer but GFA & NIHD need to be bought there. Back to stocks and JRJC which yours truly took from $10 to $40 is back at $18 it's down 40% in a week... I think this constitutes a low... maybe tomorrow... Tomorrow is the day folks, it's poop or get off the pot- We either get the guts up and put up our 10% cash or we don't... I'm feeling a big account shake up coming and we are going to go with this new portfolio probably... I hope you all do play along... as the past has shown it can be detrimental to your portfolio not to.<<EBAY it's on the list. I'm sorry everyone is shopping Internet and EBAY somehow has become the #1 shopping site, Paypal is rocking DGIT I already own so it's hard to buy again but for arguments sake let's put that on the list now. These land plays Tejon Ranch 270,000 acres 60 miles from LA, Rayonier 2.7 miln in Timberland maybe Plum Creek these need to be looked at. THEME* NUCLEAR. This is real and happening now we have to start a nuclear list... folks please play along if you can, but there's that beryllium play I have to recall that name... and THORIUM POWER of course THPW (27 cent stock!) and this French company that might merge with that Thysun-Kruppp in Germany and Excelon and that other utility... I'm going to have to get my head back together... this correction my dog's inner misery, my lack of sleep it's a tough snap out of it in the corner of this room in my underwear... (lying sweats- coincides with another thread) CREE is dangerous but good I think that might have to go on...BPHX? Will small cap play along? I think so lets do it. Lets really research SUNTEC POWER solar will retreat as oil does and maybe quite a bit but these guys present at brokerage conferences all month NOV 27,DEC 5, & DEC 6th... STP the most followed newsletter of China ONLY has this stock left in their portfolio!@ That says something (about China and about this stock!) ANF was the trade in retail and it's only my favorite in and out play $73.50 to $77 the only problem is I missed it this time. Could J Crew do the same? I think so> lets put JCG in . Alright lets get stoned and merge these ideas and the above into one coherent portfolio so far Six Names... MLNM. EBAY CREE BPHX DGIT JCG And these ideas from above. MIDD DAKT EBAY SIRT WU That's 11 and we need our 4 China plays in!!!... we must whittle whittle whittle... talk to you all tomorrow. Peace~ stoney
Oh Happy Days! MLNM opening flat it's in.... CHDX & JRJC opening strong.... will wait for slight pullback this afternoon for them... Still comparing Ebay to other int shopping sites... STP is looking pretty good here... final research being finished... Watching BPHX.... ~ stoney
I'm going with STP here Suntech Power. We bought MLNM.... More To come.... Where is everyone? I've got $200K to put to work and none of you are helping!!!! $Cost I gave you CHDX 5 days ago at $27 1/2 and it's $32 today... I gave you the ST bottom in China one day early AND yesterday recommended JRJC up over $2 today.... Please tell me you have not taken to early drinking! ~ stoney
1.The Middleby Corporation MIDD 74.76 - $77 2.Daktronics, Inc. DAKT 20.77 - 22.64 3.eBay Inc. EBAY 31.85 - $33.75 4.WellCare Health Plans, Inc. WCG 35.91 - 36 5.Hutchinson Technology Inc HTCH 26.34 - 27.26 6.GeoEye Inc. GEOY 33.18- 31.08 7.Sirtris Pharmaceuticals Inc. SIRT 16.60 -18.38 8.E TRADE Financial Corporation ETFC 4.15 - $5.30 9.The Western Union Company WU 21.37 - 22.50 10.Oilsands Quest Inc. BQI 5.22 - 4.61 >> Alright from our first RS screen we have a $3 gain in MIDD, A $2 gain in Ebay, $2 Gain on DAKT, Flat on HTCH & WCG, a $2 LOSS on GEOY, a $2 gain on SIRT a $1 plus big % gain on ETFC a $1 plus on WU and a loss on BQI.... 6 big winners, two flat and two losses.... NOW these picks were made at the very depths of a market plunging so RESPECT needed and demanded here... I expect our percentage of gainers VS losers will improve from here on out as the market itself does...what we do now is keep the leaders-- MIDD, EBAY SIRT, WU, DAKT These 5 stay as BIG holds with our other portfolio members in this thread. ETFC is flipped for gain and we will hold on to loser BQI... That leaves decisions on GEOY & HTCH, I'm inclined to keep HTCH but more on that later... ~ stoney