See, this was kinda my point in the other thread. During certain months, for selected stocks, I do specific things if some conditions are met. You have developed an edge using options as a tool. The time decay in itself is not an edge. I feel like what I hear from educators is - sell premium when vol is elevated, the probabilities are on your side, but play small in case that unlikely freak event happens. I don't hear anything even hinting that they have an edge beyond that. Play small!? Why am I doing it then, for amusement?
I think in this post you meant to say you were going long. But since you knew it was an exhaustion bar, then you are essentially saying that you know price will drop, but I will keep adding to my long. Granted, we don't know how low it will drop, so maybe your first long entry would be as low as it goes, but its still counter-intuitive to go long but knowing price will drop. And then when you say you favor price breaking out the bottom of the range, its even more scary to be long. It just sounds so funny to want to go long at the top of the range, but not want to go long at the bottom of the range because you say that price is more likely to break out the bottom. Going long at the top but not going long at the bottom is the exact opposite of "buy low and sell high". LOL But I see its well thought out and you clearly know what you are doing.
Here is my edge. The markets are not random, and can be predicted using past historical charts to determine future price movement with respect to time. I do not know how to predict how far a market will move. The attachment is expected timing and movement of the SP500 for the near future.
1) 2885 characters. Zero substance. 2) People on here showing where shit has been are the red flags. 100% this guy isn't successful.
I will do my cycle solutions on requests. I can do most any currency pair. I can do individual stocks also.
No trade management will help if model has no expectancy. The best trade management in the world will not help you in roulette.
I called Netflix, tho u took the trade as I was busy, respect. Still in the trade? Wrong. I'll code an example later.
Here is another way to look at this Price Action from RTH to RTH’s. Look at the two charts. First is the open from yesterday’s to today’s open RTH’s. All channels morph into ranges. If I can get in early on the range, at the top, or while I perceive the range is in the beginning stages, then I can add long and long feeling quite confident that the extreme previous bullish context will pull me out of any hole I bury myself in as I seek to buy cheaper and cheaper setting myself up for at least a probable move back up to test the high right after the open. Of course if I missed calculated on a range starting I would have to exit any shorts I made and MUY PRONTO if the channel resumed up and then double up in that more bullish move. Now the contexts supports my action. It would not in another type of context. But in this is one I could comfortably keep adding and adding to a loser. A proper setup (range top going long in exhaustion top or even shorting) is important but WAY MORE IMPORTANT is the larger context in which that setup takes place. Remember...CONTEXT...CONTEXT...CONTEXT. Same trade in another context could fail miserably. In this case I felt I could go long and keep adding because context was so strong. If I did not feel that way I woukd have been shorting the top of the range. Hope this clarifies. My brain is tired. Lol View attachment 207506
yes i meant to say long. Will try to correct that on a later marked up chart after this post and on this post you tagged. My sugar must be up and my mind is tired. Sorry. Thanks for catching that. Don’t want to confuse people.
Not true. Read Ed Thorp: http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/SystemsForRoulette_l.pdf