%% Something like that; I am number 9 . The same deal if people see stuff[any stuff] on sale@ 50% they may buy, like a stampede of a herd of buffalow or bears . Actually TA is the study of price + volume..............................................Wisdom is profitable to direct
The Geometric Brownian Motion model of stock pricing (used in Black and Scholes model) is a universally acceptable model. This model supports market randomness. I didn't say there was not an edge to be found it just isn't found by predicting direction.
sure. it works because people get inside info and use TA as cover obviously not everyone has access to inside info, that why so few consistent winners, if any. Information link collapses and end of success.
Because many days the market is not random. For example, a report on unemployment comes out say better than expected, so it creates a fundamental action and prices rise. Then using TA, one can pick a setup that has a statistical probability of greater than 55% to work. Also, one can use TA to stay out of the market for example if prices are moving sideways. Also, when I statistical probability, I mean that you back tested it either using a report feature on your chart software or some other way. You can also look at tracking sites for example, my system that was once number 1 over year's worth of real time data that traded real money for investors was based on TA.
If a trader has a very high rate of winning trades. And winning trades means that he take very big parts of almost every move. So not just taking a few ticks here and there. Doesn't that prove that markets are not random? In best case I would even say that only turnings of the direction might be random, and even that is not sure for me.
An easier question to answer might be: Can a trader have a very high rate of winning trades if given known random, computer generated, simulated prices to trade? I've pondered this question years ago and concluded: The price actions are a random series of non-random patterns.
I agree on "non random patterns", but I don't agree on "random series". Random series in a timeframe can be part of a non random pattern in another timeframe. THE timeframe does not exist. Every "thing" is part of a bigger "thing" and can become non random because of that. I can tell more about his but will not for evident reasons.
Just to be clear, my original post is saying, for a simple example: Non-random patterns: 123123123 543543543 111111111 Combined in a random way: 123123123111111111543543543111111111...