What is Not an edge?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by OddTrader, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck

    Nope..., not even when all combined

    RN
     
    #51     Nov 16, 2013
  2. Redneck

    Redneck


    Could be, but not necessarily - and any advantage would be short lived



    At least by the hoards (and human nature, being what it is, sees this never happens)


    Nope.., it, at least, must be identified - to be used



    Food for thought;

    A true edge never deteriorates - just sayin :)


    btw, Welcome to the Forum


    RN
     
    #52     Nov 16, 2013
  3. Padawan

    Padawan

    Luck is not an edge... or maybe it is the derivative of an edge... Oh never mind.
     
    #53     Nov 16, 2013
  4. vcir

    vcir

    An Edge is a working system... Specially if System definition includes discipline, proper money management, etc.

    What I really think is an interesting discussion is not what your edge is (i think no successful trader will disclosure his/her edge) but how you came to find it.

    Maybe an idea for a forum subject :)

    Best

    vcir
     
    #54     Nov 19, 2013
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    That's easy to answer. Watching price move.
     
    #55     Nov 19, 2013
  6. How one comes to find his edge is part of his edge
     
    #56     Nov 19, 2013
  7. The thing about an edge is you can look back at your trading and see a distinct edge.{if you are a profitable trader} Going forward however an edge doesn't exist. How can it. When people say I have an edge. Is an edge really tangible? In the past yes. You have the evidence to prove you had an edge. I would say in the future of course not.

    So as far as what is not an edge would be relative to past performance. So if you are not a profitable trader your past performance would obviously not be an edge.

    Now to me the kicker is I feel I have an edge. Just like most profitable traders. But I know there are no guarantees every trade is a gamble and with a win ratio in between 55 to 60 percent with an even R:R do I really believe that I have anything. No! This however does not mean that my perception of future performance will change.
    .
    I simply like most traders use back testing manually to find an edge knowing that the best possible way to predict the future is based on relativity to the past. Patterns on charts repeat constantly on all time frames. Part of the reason there are only three things the stock can do go up down or sideways. The other reason is a chart shows you fear and greed with price movement solely credited to human action. Due to the fact that we understand the tools that are used and have a decent idea on how humans react we can predict future price movements with a better then 50/50 chance. This is the reason some argue they have an edge. I argue there are always potential edges but until proven one doesn't exist.
     
    #57     Nov 19, 2013
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Though one could argue that nothing exists in the future (some would argue that nothing exists in the present, either, since there is technically speaking no present), the edge proves itself with every trade.

    Though the outcome of any given trade is unknowable, the edge is built on predictable outcomes yielding consistent profits over time, i.e., over a series of trades. This has always been true, is true, and always will be true until somebody rewrites the nature of probability. As long as the basis for one's suppositions remains intact, i.e., until human nature changes, the edge will never change.
     
    #58     Nov 19, 2013
  9. I fully agree! Though new trades can disprove an edge just as well as prove one further.
     
    #59     Nov 19, 2013
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Depends on the basis of the edge. One based on price movement can't fail, though if one is clueless about his own strategy, he could lose. That, however, would be a triumph of cluelessness, not an indictment of the edge.
     
    #60     Nov 19, 2013