BRLC is presenting at the 5th Annual D.A. Davidson Technology Conference this afternoon. I am hoping we'll see an additional pop tomorrow.
I'm sorry, I meant I placed my stop at 8.5 after it went up to 8.8. I feel a .3 correction on BRLC is not a correction at all. i've watched this stock for about a month intraday. This stock usually takes a .20 point correction in an uptrend.
I would leave a mental trailing stop here at $7.88. It occurs to me we may have a head and shoulder thing happening with $7.88 being the neckline. If this is broken it would indicate a price potential for BRLC of.... Like $4.50!
Stoney - I appreciate the heads-up, but I really think this is a case where the fundamentals outweigh the technicals. Trading at a forward PE of 11 is ridiculous considering the growth. Right now, this is my largest holding (cost basis $8.30) and I will be looking to add more at anything below $8 should we see at. (I am actually considering adding at the current levels). Link to recent conference: http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/14/146/146224/items/232708/Syntax_HDTV.pdf Sure - You've got to take this info with a grain of salt, but man I do like their story. Add to that the 12M shares short (33% of float) and we could see Blast Off any day now.
Hey I just did a review of the company and of course there is a lot to like. There is a really interesting marketing 101 lesson here in Olivia as a brand name -- now I already know it. so whatever subliminal shit they are doing it's working. And I do think it will be a tier 1 brand very much so. It's a good name it reminds one of the old typewriter which was everyone's most reliable and favorite. Vivitar is cool with the digital cameras another good name. Margins on the TV's are especially fat, made in the US how can you not like that? There's just that nagging thought that this is the type of company that can be doing everything right and still get clobbered do to stuff out of their control. The consumer pulls in, etc. Parts unavailable... But they seem to have the tech side covered with their Chinese plant... the thing is I took this from $3.50 to $7.50 so I was very much surprised to see it go to $11. The chart looks dangerous to me but this Times article is wildly bullish. May Hit $14 - New York Times Posted on Feb 12th, 2007 with stocks: BRLC In the battle for market share in liquid-crystal TVs many companies have suffered from a massive sharp price drop that saw sets selling for 1/2 their regular prices over the Thanksgiving weekend. New York Times reports that a good part of the drop was fueled by Syntax-Brillian Corp. (BRLC) CEO Vincent F. Sollitto Jr., who dropped prices of its Olevia line to as low as $475 for a 32-inch set in order to get his upstart company noticed. It worked: Olevia recently garnered a Consumer Reports Best Buy rating. Its brand has already grabbed 4% of the U.S. market, making Sollitto's goal of making Olevia a top-tier brand a real possibility. As it moves into big stores, market share could increase to 7.5%. Syntax is the only publicly traded TV company in the U.S.; shares went from $2.02 in May 2006 to as high as $11.70 in January. A glut in flat panels, the TV's main component, has left suppliers running below full capacity, and willing to offer bargains to customers who commit to large orders. But aggressive price reductions by big names like Sony and Sharp may close the gap between first and second tier companies, and the big names say they will move towards higher-priced 46", 52" and 65" models where value brands can't compete. Thursday Sollitto issued a 'conservative' forecast of tripling revenue in 2007, and shares dropped 15%. John Vinh of C. E. Unterberg Towbin brushes off the price drop, and forecasts shares will go to $14. Still what is it about this biz that makes it so tough. I took a bath on Spatalight HDTV (how bout that symbol) I made some dough on Microtune but then went back to the well and got smoked. AUO I owned forever $9 to $14 and back again... I just don't know if I can do it again. This Xmas was supposed to really suck so those numbers are going to be soft but with the big discounts unit sales should be good-- they did boot the revenue last time. It's really a classic marketing story and a good one when you take all the metrics and up the prices to Tier1 set level-- well then it's going to be a cash cow, but for now being the low cost guy is the way to go as people come to respect the brandname and the sets quality they are apt to buy their next one some years down the line. The question with the stock is when to own it. I'm not sure I have the answer. I see this as a $9 stock now like Zenith was in the old days and as they get in new doors and their market share keeps advancing it should advance to that NY times price of $14. But does it scare the crap out of you and go to $5.75 first??????
Yea Stoney - I do agree, like many start-up stories, there is probably a better chance that something goes wrong than everything going right. Right now it seems their biggest issue is growing too much too fast. They really need to shore up some financing to float their receivables. But as far as problems go, that is a good one to have. They can't build & finance enough product to meet the demand. But damn - the product line / margins / and international sales pipeline are just so impressive. I also think the marketing via sports channels is perfect for the targeted market. You know I will have my stops in to protect a loss, but if they can get some money behind them and some more institutional investors (to wipe out the shorts), this could really rocket. Like I said previously, I have traded this stock several times since last fall - buying in the 6's, 7's, & 8's and selling in the 9's and 10's (and 1 time shorting at 11 and covering at 9). I just think I have got a good feel for this stock, ya know what I mean? That said, the amount of Shorts certainly is a concern. More times than not the shorts know something us retail guys don't. In my mind it will take some major bad news to see it fall back to the 5's - if that happens I will certainly be out of it and possibly looking to buy there.
Topdown I ran the whole short argument through a few times they really just seem fixated on management lying about margins because the industry is used to 2% to 5% and BRLC is tossing up 13%! A lot has to with being a pure play and less overhead and expenditures but there is also pricing issues with their components and it looks like the company has entered into some long term agreements with suppliers that may be advantageous now but not later if component parts semiconductors, tuners, etc take a dive in price-- that could backfire. If you trust management you will be ok here. Of course I trusted Spatalight for whatever reason....
Check out Targets current home page: http://www.target.com/gp/homepage.html Olevia TV front & center!