What is going on with volatility

It's not all Brexit. Maybe that's a piece of it.

The market is toppy here and very hesitant at upper levels. When it wants to go higher we blow through highs and churn upward - this one looks like something that stalled with no real conviction. That, plus the Soros comments and a few others, Asia selling off and the failure to raise rates leaves many with the feeling that maybe earnings growth has stalled as well.

I'm not calling for a drop here. I have no idea what will happen in terms of direction, but it seems like lots of people are feeling like there's more risk to be fully in the market at this level.

That's just right now. In a few days or next week the mood could be totally different.

 

Interesting analysis, thanks. Vol is again doing better than the muted move in the S&P would predict -- SPY +0.0%, VXX +2.8% as I write. (VXX is an ETN that tracks long VIX futures positions in the first two contracts.)

 

volatility market highly manipulated ..a few firms often collude to force large, leveredged traders out of positions

 

Huh? And how do "they" do that?

 

Through the media.

• The media is fed doom and gloom stories.
• Joe Public gets worried.
• Volatility rises.

 

Huh? Fed doom and gloom? Volatility has been getting crushed daily for 7 years straight. How has doom and gloom led to higher volatility. Everyone on this message board is bitching that volatility is zero. The VIX has been sitting in the low to mid teens for years. Can you make up a better story?

 

The oil industry would be a good example.

 

I have no idea what you are alluding to. Can you please be more specific. Lower oil prices have not let to higher vol, quite the opposite.

 

You sound like you're on the wrong side of a trade honestly.

 

no shit

at least I have plenty of $ in other stuff that can;t be as easily eaten up by manipulators. The real money is in real estate anyway . Volatility has surged more in the past five days than even in January. how much more does volatility have to rise for a 'yes' vote to be priced in? It reeks of a coordinated effort by funds to squeeze out vol. sellers with brexit being used as an excuse. If it's a 'no' vote then we're going to see the biggest IV crush since..idunno 2011. Assuming my account does not go to zero I will never make this mistake again.