These speculations are pointless.....we were due for a correction. Be happy if we don't end up in a depression as a result of decades of gov intervention....
Too little too late, this market's done....not even Mueller can save us. Trump's doubling down on China hawks so it'll bee too late before he admits "they" are fucking up and capitulates. The fed's are giving him ammo (rightfully so) on tech hacks, so that ain't helping. Oh, and we're holding CFO's hostage too.
Numbers aren't too bad yet on RMBS data although quality has sharply declined, but treasury is backing Ginnie Mae, which consists of over 80 % of non bank lenders passing through there as of last month, non bank lenders mostly issue non-qm loans, which are back with the 1 and 3 % down, some even offer assistance on the 1 % down which is lunacy. The scary part, as bad as the quality of RMBS being issued lately are, is the fixed income market and BDCs. CMBS are starting to look bad and most BDC's are leveraged to the tits, with trumps new law, they are allowed 2:1 ratio. With the deflation cycle were in, and assets falling, BDC's will face mounting pressures. Will be interesting to see how some of them make it out
Powells speach was boring and was like what to expect from a typical bean counter. I have a policy in my trading plan and that is to rule out investing in positions where the Board is top heavy with accountants or lawyers. These sorts of people appear to be clueless how to run a company. Engineers and anyone who is hands on make the best decisions. Desk bound white shirt types like to project competence, however Powell couldn't even do that simple task.
Anyhow, a sacking is on the cards. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ss-firing-fed-s-powell-after-latest-rate-hike
In 1993, Powell began working as a managing director for Bankers Trust, but he quit in 1995 after the bank got into trouble when several customers suffered large losses due to derivatives.
Likewise anyone with half a brain knows The Fed been doing that for decades but until the day comes when we lose our "World's Reserve Currency" status, and strongest military (though yet another thing Drumpf might f'k up) to go with it, the printing continues on.